Honda Civic Type R FD2, called 7 Sep 2026.
Published before the hammer on 7 Sep 2026 and graded against what the car actually made. The thesis below is the one that went up, unedited.
A 2007 Civic Type R FD2 running on Collecting Cars out of Mulgrave, Victoria — Vivid Blue Pearl over black suede and cloth, 44,513 kilometres indicated and believed genuine by the seller, Japan-delivered and complied into Australia in March 2021, VIN 6U90000FD21202717.
Every earlier call on this page carried a range of about ten per cent either side of the midpoint, which came from habit and not from measurement; scored leave-one-out across 415 recorded Australian sales, a value resting on two local transactions needs about thirty per cent to contain four results in five. This record has two. The band below is thirty per cent and it is wide because the evidence under it is thin, which is the honest way round.
The library carries $41,000, and that figure is an inference from landed replacement cost — Japanese auction money around four million yen puts a car on the ground here at an estimated $45,000 to $55,000 — not an Australian transaction. The record says so in its own evidence and marks it as an inference. The Australian transactions say something else. There are two, both February 2024: $28,250 at Clayton South at 67,038 kilometres and $28,000 in the western suburbs of New South Wales at 115,550 kilometres.
At 1.6 per cent per 10,000 kilometres against the 130,000 this record expects, the Clayton South car carries +10.1 per cent and the New South Wales car +2.3; stripping those out and re-applying this lot's distance puts them at $28,744 and $30,651. The fitted market index is flat between 2024 and 2026, so no drift adjustment is taken. Run the same distance term against the carried value instead and the answer is $45,920 — sixteen thousand dollars of daylight between a number built on two sales and a number built on an exchange rate.
That call rested its whole structure on one Australian sale and missed by 37.3 per cent, the widest miss in this log. The error there was not arithmetic; it was leaning on an anchor the local market had not confirmed. Replacement cost is a floor under this model in the long run and it is a real argument, but it is not evidence of what a room in Melbourne pays on a Thursday, and this call will be graded against a room in Melbourne.
The distance term is capped and the cap binds here: 44,513 kilometres against 130,000 expected is +13.7 per cent raw and the model will only pay +12, so the model under-credits this car's single strongest feature. Both comparables were materially harder-used, at 67,038 and 115,550 kilometres. The documentation is complete for a JDM import — Japanese owner's manuals and service books, a Japanese Export Authority Certificate, a January 2026 service at 39,789 kilometres — and the VIN is clear on both the Personal Property Securities Register and the Austroads written-off and stolen databases. Vivid Blue Pearl is claimed at around 450 cars of 14,062 built. That claim is the seller's and this library holds no Australian result that prices FD2 colour, so it is credited as judgement and named as unevidenced.
Tein Spec coilovers are fitted, ten millimetres lower at the front and twenty-five at the rear, with 20mm bolt-on spacers. The OEM coilovers come with the car, so this is reversible and the deduction is small, but a modified car sells to a smaller room than a standard one. There is ONE KEY, which on a Japan-delivered import with no local dealer network is not a footnote. Three pencil dents — one on each rear door and one on the bonnet — stone chips on the bumper and bonnet, and a blemish on the rear spoiler. The seller states the next service is imminent.
This library docks an import twelve per cent on a model Honda sold here new. Honda Australia sold the European FN2 hatch; the FD2 sedan was never offered here and every Australian car arrived used under SEVS approval SEV-000659. There is no Australian-delivered benchmark to be discounted against, so no penalty is taken. A record that applied one here would be pricing this car against a car that does not exist.
Worth about $35,000 on the transactional evidence with the judgement above applied, less the six per cent buyer's premium plus GST that sits on top of the hammer. Predicted hammer $23,000 to $43,000, midpoint $33,000.
If landed replacement really is $45,000 to $55,000 and a buyer in the room has priced an import, the floor argument wins and this call is low — the same way the 930 Turbo call is currently low with ninety minutes to run.
The last time this car was tested in Australia it made $28,000 and $28,250 on higher-mileage examples, and nothing since has retested it. A thin room on a modified import with one key lands nearer that pair than nearer the carried value.
The lot stands at $26,250 from 25 bids with two days to run, 20 per cent under the call. Four days ago a published note on the Supra RZ-S read $35,250 from 43 bids at three days out as a room testing the number. It was a room warming up; that lot made $75,000 and the call was a hit at 1.3 per cent. So this is recorded and not interpreted. The call does not move.
The call is a prediction of one hammer. The record behind it is the Australian evidence for the model as a whole, and it carries its own grade for how much of that evidence exists.
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