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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Ford Falcon XR8
Valuation · Ford · BA · 2002-05

Ford Falcon XR8

5.4L V8 (Boss 260) · 260 kW / 500 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the under $30k band · 36 of 46 at this money
Research estimate
$14,500
Must gain each year to break even
+20.7%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
40/100
Scored against the under $30k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$14,500
$9,762 lowhigh $17,479
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.

Looking at a Falcon for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$14,500
At about 200,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.

We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.

Price history

Today $14,500 · modelled median at five years $13,987
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $11,765 to $15,824
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($9,762 to $17,479). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 40/100, ranking 36 of 46 in the under $30k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, ownership economics the weakest.
Running it costs about $4,060 a year (28.0% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $4,415 a year.
The model's five year median is $13,987, a -3.5% move, with the tenth percentile at $9,762.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
-12%
Value band
wide
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$4,415 a year all in, -3.5% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$14,500

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
1 row on record
Every row, with its price and note (1) ↓
2026Burns and Co$10,750Context, excluded
SOLD. Melbourne VIC, 175,864km, 5.4L Boss 260 manual, white over black, sold unregistered and as-is. Lot confirmed on the auction house site; the hammer figure is aggregator-sourced and unconfirmed
0 completed Australian sales of 1 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the under $30k band median
46 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
11/100-24
Scarcity25% of total
29/100-12
Demand durability20% of total
72/100+16
Liquidity15% of total
72/100+13
Risk resilience10% of total
38/100+1
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 40/100. Medians are computed live from the 46 cars currently in the under $30k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
11/100
Baseline80 pts
− 28.0% of value a year to run-69 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)11 pts
Scarcity25% weight
29/100
Baseline24 pts
+ 16,000 registered in Australia, manuals a smaller subset+5 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)29 pts
Demand durability20% weight
72/100
Baseline50 pts
+ Boss 260 V8 has a strong local performance following+16 pts
+ Ford vs Holden rivalry drives ongoing enthusiast interest+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)72 pts
Liquidity15% weight
72/100
Baseline52 pts
+ Fast-moving Australian muscle market, 28 days on market+20 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)72 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
38/100
Baseline46 pts
− Boss V8 durable, timing chain guides a known wear point-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)38 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 8,889 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$4,060a year
Share of value per year
28.0%
Scheduled servicing$80020%
Tyres, annualised$78019%
Registration and CTP$85021%
Insurance$1,08027%
Sinking fund (failure table)$55014%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$15,080
Running costs × 5 years$20,300
Median exit, net of selling cost$13,307
All-in annualised over 5 years$4,415/yr
Share of value per year30.4%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
20.7%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-0.7%a year
The projection falls 21.4 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$14,500
Stamp duty$580
Running costs x 5 years$20,300
Selling cost at exit, 4.7% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$37,121
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine5.4L V8 (Boss 260)
Power / torque260 kW / 500 Nm
0-100 km/h5.9 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,780 kg
Built worldwide42,000
Delivered to Australia42,000
Effective AU survivors16,000
Australian sales / year1,100
Typical days on market28 days
Launch price$47,990

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Nitrous Blue+4%
Vixen+3%
White-1%
Options
Manual over auto+5%
Unmodified Boss 260+6%
Odometer sensitivity±1% per 10,000 km vs 200,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$13,987
-3.5% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $14,500.
Even odds it lands between $11,765 and $15,824.
$9,762 lowhigh $17,479
The shaded range is even money and 35% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 71% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$513 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $20,300.
Duty and expected selling costs: $1,260.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $22,075, or $4,415 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

The Boss 260 V8 has a strong local performance following and the Ford-Holden rivalry keeps enthusiast interest high across generations. It sells quickly at 28 days on market and values have risen steadily since 2016.

The case against

At an estimated 16,000 AU survivors it is not a scarce car, and timing chain guide wear is a known issue on higher-km examples. Genuine manual, well-documented cars command a premium over the wider fleet.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Timing chain guide wear
Risk 2Fleet/high-km history common
Risk 3Diff and tailshaft wear from hard use
Timing chain guide replacement$1,400
Diff rebuild$1,600
Clutch replacement$1,150

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueResearched · 0 recorded sales
Carried value
$14,500
Historical price
2016 · $10,8002026 · $14,500
Researched
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
First Australian auction result, and it landed well under the figure this record carried

A 2005 BA XR8 with the 5.4-litre Boss 260 and the manual gearbox, 175,864 kilometres, white over black, made $10,750 through Burns and Co in Melbourne out of their March Muscle, Classic and Collectable auction.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (3 more)
The lot is confirmed at the auction house and the price is not

The Burns and Co listing for this car exists and its odometer, transmission, engine and colours all match, but the house does not publish the hammer on that page, so the $10,750 is aggregator-sourced and unconfirmed. That is the strongest evidence anything in this record has ever had and it is still only half-verified.

The value moves $18,000 to $14,500 rather than to $10,750

Taken out to the 200,000 kilometres this record expects, that sale implies about $10,500, which would be a 42 per cent cut on a single result. Against that: this is a common car at roughly 1,100 sales a year and 16,000 survivors, auction results on cars that liquid routinely run below retail, and this one sold unregistered and as-is off the floor with no warranty, which every bidder prices. $14,500 splits the difference and states the tension rather than hiding it.

A second result would settle it

And it is the single most useful thing that could be added here. SOURCING: aggregator-surfaced auction results, not confirmed against the auction house, which is the weakest evidence grade in this library. Replace with a published figure when one appears.

What we will not sell you
We will not price a Ford Falcon against an advertisement.

No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.

Read a real listing report
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Ford Falcon XR8, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

Free. One address, one model, and no account.