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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Toyota GR Corolla GTS
Valuation · Toyota · GZEA14H · 2023-26

Toyota GR Corolla GTS

1.6L turbo inline three · 221 kW / 370 Nm · 6sp manual · AWD
CONSIDERRated within the $30k to $100k band · 40 of 94 at this money
Model value
$54,000
Must gain each year to break even
+10.4%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
56/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$54,000
$38,729 lowhigh $65,224
Calibrated to a thin record
Two Australian results: $73,000 at delivery mileage in April 2023 and $66,500 on a Morizo Edition in May 2026. These prices reach this library through a third-party compiler rather than from the selling house: Collecting Cars publishes the car, the date, the suburb, the odometer and the condition report, and puts the final figure behind a login. They are carried as evidence on that basis and the provenance is stated here so it can be weighed.

Looking at a GR Corolla for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$54,000
At about 21,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $54,000 · modelled median at five years $52,639
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $45,322 to $59,259
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($38,729 to $65,224). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 56/100, ranking 40 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $6,040 a year (11.2% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $7,024 a year.
The model's five year median is $52,639, a -2.5% move, with the tenth percentile at $38,729.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin2 recorded sales
Off its peak
-13%
Value band
moderate
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$7,024 a year all in, -2.5% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$54,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
2 rows on record
$76k$64k$51k
202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $54kwhat the model expects across 0k–1k kmsold
Every row, with its price and note (2) ↓
Library value against the sold record
2 sales · median $69,750
Value $54,000
$66,500$73,000
The library value sits below the lowest recorded sale; the evidence note above explains why.
May 2026AutoMarkets$66,500Sold
SOLD. D 22 May 2026, 880km. 2023 GR Corolla Morizo Edition, sold about $11,300 below its $77,800 list.; the originating auction house is not named, so attribution is incomplete.
Apr 2023AutoMarkets$73,000Sold
SOLD. D 21 Apr 2023, 100km. 2022 GR Corolla, delivery-mileage flip that made about $10,700 above the $62,300 list.; the originating auction house is not named, so attribution is incomplete.
2 completed Australian sales of 2 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
62/100+7
Scarcity25% of total
46/100-7
Demand durability20% of total
64/100-2
Liquidity15% of total
76/100+24
Risk resilience10% of total
21/100-15
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 56/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
62/100
Baseline84 pts
− 11.2% of value a year to run-28 pts
+ Below its Australian list price+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)62 pts
Scarcity25% weight
46/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 2,050 survivors estimated in Australia+26 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)46 pts
Demand durability20% weight
64/100
Baseline56 pts
+ An AWD homologation-flavoured hot hatch with a real following+12 pts
+ Twenty-five Morizo Editions came to Australia+8 pts
− The flipping money left in 2023 and has not come back-12 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)64 pts
Liquidity15% weight
76/100
Baseline12 pts
+ 45 days on market+42 pts
+ 250 sales a year+22 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)76 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
21/100
Baseline54 pts
− An ECU tune is common and voids the Toyota warranty-12 pts
− Head gasket and coolant trouble on hard-driven cars-8 pts
− Scarcity has not turned into a premium yet-6 pts
− Thin transaction record-7 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)21 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 12,000 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$6,040a year
Share of value per year
11.2%
Scheduled servicing$1,36023%
Tyres, annualised$92015%
Registration and CTP$73012%
Insurance$1,72028%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,31022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$56,160
Running costs × 5 years$30,200
Median exit, net of selling cost$51,239
All-in annualised over 5 years$7,024/yr
Share of value per year13.0%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
10.4%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-0.5%a year
The projection falls 10.9 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$54,000
Stamp duty$2,160
Running costs x 5 years$30,200
Selling cost at exit, 2.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$88,659
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine1.6L turbo inline three
Power / torque221 kW / 370 Nm
0-100 km/h5.3 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveAWD
Kerb weight1,470 kg
Built worldwideNot established
Delivered to Australia2,100
Effective AU survivors2,050
Australian sales / year250
Typical days on market45 days
Launch price$62,300

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Original paint, unresprayed+5%
A factory colour rather than a wrap+3%
Repainted after damage-7%
Options
Morizo Edition, one of 25 delivered here+25%
Factory ECU, untuned, with warranty intact+12%
Six-speed manual rather than the MY2025 automatic+8%
Odometer sensitivity±1.6% per 10,000 km vs 21,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$52,639
-2.5% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $54,000.
Even odds it lands between $45,322 and $59,259.
$38,729 lowhigh $65,224
The shaded range is even money and 31% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 69% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$1,361 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $30,200.
Duty and expected selling costs: $3,560.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $35,120, or $7,024 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

Twenty-five Morizo Editions came to Australia against a 700-car first-year GTS allocation, and the recommended price has risen $5,690 since launch, which puts a floor under the used cars. The correction off the 2023 flipping peak has already happened rather than still being ahead.

The case against

A delivery-mileage car made about $10,700 above list in 2023 and a Morizo made about $11,300 below list in 2026, which is a speculative bubble deflating in two figures. An ECU tune voids the Toyota warranty and is common enough on this model that a standard car has to be proved.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1ECU tunes are common and void the Toyota warranty
Risk 2Head gasket and coolant trouble on hard-driven cars
Risk 3Morizo scarcity has not produced a premium yet
G16E-GTS head gasket / coolant issues on hard-driven cars$6,500
Clutch wear from launch-control use$4,250
Front tyres, Michelin PS4S 235/40 R18 set$2,100

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 2 recorded sales
Carried value
$54,000
Historical price
2022 · $62,3002026 · $54,000
Thin
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Two Australian auction figures describe the whole ARC of this model

In April 2023 a car with 100km made $73,000, about $10,700 above its $62,300 list, which is what the top of a supply squeeze looks like: a delivery-mileage flip. In May 2026 a Morizo Edition with 880km made $66,500, about $11,300 below its $77,800 list. Both are carried. Two results two years apart, one at the top of a squeeze and one after it, is a direction rather than a level. Read as direction rather than level they are unambiguous. The flipping premium is gone and good cars now sit $8,000 to $10,000 under their original list.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (3 more)
Scarcity has not turned into money

Toyota brought a 700-car first-year GTS allocation and just 25 Morizo Editions. Twenty-five cars in a country this size ought to command something and the one published Morizo figure says it does not yet. That is worth watching rather than paying for in advance.

What puts a floor under it is the new car

An eight-speed automatic joined the manual for MY2025 and the recommended price has risen $5,690 since launch, so replacement cost keeps climbing while used values flatten.

Two caveats on the numbers

VFACTS does not break the GR Corolla out separately, so the Australian delivery figure here is an estimate. And an ECU tune voids the Toyota warranty, which makes a documented standard car worth real money.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Toyota GR Corolla GTS is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$54,000
Half of sales are further out than$6,037
The report$249
24×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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