_front.JPG?width=2000)
Valuation · Subaru · GRB · 2008-14
Subaru Impreza WRX STI Spec R
2.5L turbo flat four (EJ25) · 221 kW / 407 Nm · 6sp manual · AWD
AVOIDRated within the $30k to $100k band · 81 of 94 at this money
Research estimate
$38,000
Must gain each year to break even
+10.4%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
48/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$38,000
$29,347 lowhigh $54,073
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.
Looking at an Impreza WRX STI for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$38,000
At about 145,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.
We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.
Price history
Today $38,000 · modelled median at five years $43,688
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $36,145 to $49,151
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($29,347 to $54,073). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
The numbers argue against it. Scores 48/100, ranking 81 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $4,260 a year (11.2% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $3,606 a year.
The model's five year median is $43,688, a +15.0% move, with the tenth percentile at $29,347.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$3,606 a year all in, +15.0% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity requires a decade of attrition
Negotiate from$38,000
Recorded sales
Every recorded observation, and when
1 row on recordEvery row, with its price and note (1) ↓
2026Collecting Cars$36,000Context, excluded
SOLD. 7 Apr 2026, Baulkham Hills NSW, 85,613km, manual. Listed only as 3rd Gen Impreza, STI not confirmed. Context only
0 completed Australian sales of 1 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.
Score breakdown
Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
52/100-3
Scarcity25% of total
22/100-31
Demand durability20% of total
66/100even
Liquidity15% of total
66/100+14
Risk resilience10% of total
42/100+6
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 48/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
52/100Baseline80 pts
− 11.2% of value a year to run-28 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)52 pts
Scarcity25% weight
22/100Baseline22 pts
+ 4,200 registered in Australia, still relatively common0 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)22 pts
Demand durability20% weight
66/100Baseline50 pts
+ Continues the WRX STI rally lineage with broad appeal+16 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)66 pts
Liquidity15% weight
66/100Baseline48 pts
+ Deep, active market, 28 days on market+18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)66 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
42/100Baseline48 pts
− EJ25 ringland risk on tuned examples, robust if stock-6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)42 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 9,667 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$4,260a year
Share of value per year
11.2%
Scheduled servicing$78018%
Tyres, annualised$78018%
Registration and CTP$80019%
Insurance$1,25029%
Sinking fund (failure table)$65015%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$39,520
Running costs × 5 years$21,300
Median exit, net of selling cost$42,788
All-in annualised over 5 years$3,606/yr
Share of value per year9.5%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
10.4%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+2.8%a year
The projection falls 7.6 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$38,000
Stamp duty$1,520
Running costs x 5 years$21,300
Selling cost at exit, 2.4% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$62,295
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine2.5L turbo flat four (EJ25)
Power / torque221 kW / 407 Nm
0-100 km/h4.9 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveAWD
Kerb weight1,500 kg
Built worldwide65,000
Delivered to Australia5,600
Effective AU survivors4,200
Australian sales / year340
Typical days on market28 days
Launch price$59,990
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
WR Blue+5%
Silver0%
White-1%
Options
Original exhaust and intake fitted+5%
Full Subaru history+4%
Odometer sensitivity±1.3% per 10,000 km vs 145,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$43,688
+15.0% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $38,000.
Even odds it lands between $36,145 and $49,151.
$29,347 lowhigh $54,073
The shaded range is even money and 36% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 70% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$5,688 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $21,300.
Duty and expected selling costs: $2,420.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $18,030, or $3,606 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.
The case for and against
The case for
Continues the WRX STI rally lineage with broad enthusiast appeal and a deep, active market at 28 days on market. Values have climbed steadily since 2016 as GC8-era prices pull the newer generations up with them.
The case against
At an estimated 4,200 AU survivors it remains a relatively common car, so it is not a scarcity play. The EJ25 carries ringland risk on tuned examples and buyers need to verify a genuine stock tune.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1Ringland failure risk if tuned
Risk 2Wheel bearing wear on high-km cars
Risk 3Verifying genuine stock ECU tune
Ringland repair$4,200
Wheel bearing replacement$650
Clutch replacement$1,100
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
Evidence behind this valueResearched · 0 recorded sales
Carried value
$38,000
Historical price
2016 · $22,0002026 · $38,000
Researched
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
One Australian lot and it is not counted
A manual third-generation Impreza with 85,613 kilometres made $36,000 at Baulkham Hills, New South Wales in April 2026. The listing says only 3rd Gen and does not confirm STI over WRX, so it is held as context and does not move the value.
Read the rest of the evidence notes (2 more)
A confirmed Spec R result is what this record needs
Sourced from the auction house directly
Rather than through an aggregator, so these are the strongest evidence grade in this library: price, date, odometer, service history and condition notes all come from the published lot page.
What we will not sell you
We will not price a Subaru Impreza WRX STI against an advertisement.
No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Subaru Impreza WRX STI Spec R, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.