Valuation · Holden · VF II · 2015-17
Holden Commodore SS-V Redline
6.2L V8 (LS3) · 304 kW / 570 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the $30k to $100k band · 57 of 94 at this money
Model value
$48,000
Must gain each year to break even
+10.8%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
52/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Measured
Four or more recorded Australian sales
$48,000
$31,320 lowhigh $41,335
Calibrated to recorded sales
Ex-police manual, 75,000 km, sold $62,500 in 2025; the $750,000 final-serial car is an outlier
Looking at a Commodore for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$48,000
At about 90,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.
A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report
Price history
Today $48,000 · modelled median at five years $37,279
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $34,145 to $39,412
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($31,320 to $41,335). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
A defensible case with reservations. Scores 52/100, ranking 57 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $5,480 a year (11.4% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $8,328 a year.
The model's five year median is $37,279, a -22.3% move, with the tenth percentile at $31,320.
Value calibrated to recorded sales.
Evidence
Measured5 recorded sales
Off its peak
-24%
Value band
tight
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$8,328 a year all in, -22.3% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity requires a decade of attrition
Negotiate from$48,000
Recorded sales
Every recorded observation, and when
6 rows on record$137k$75k$13k
20222023202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $48kwhat the model expects across 3k–131k kmsoldcontext, excluded1 row sits off this scale. Open the list below to see them.
Every row, with its price and note (6) ↓
Library value against the sold record
5 sales · median $56,500Value $48,000
$26,500$71,000
2026Collecting Cars$26,500Sold
SOLD. 31 Jul 2026, Melbourne VIC, 131,359km, Sportwagon
2026Collecting Cars$56,500Sold
SOLD. 15 Jun 2026, Nerang QLD, 12,525km, VFII
2025auction$62,500Sold
Ex-police manual, 75,000 km
Nov 2024Collecting Cars$50,500Sold
SOLD. 25 Nov 2024, Pheasant Creek VIC, 7,639km. 2017 VFII SS V Redline, white over black, six-speed automatic, bi-modal exhaust. The right taillight and rear right panel were damaged and have been replaced. Two dated services, the last at 5,306km in January 2022
Aug 2023Collecting Cars$71,000Sold
SOLD. 18 Aug 2023, Lyndhurst VIC, 3,255km. 2017 VFII SS V Redline in Spitfire Green, ceramic coated, Brembos, first registered October 2017 and serviced once at about 2,000km. A security interest was logged against the VIN on the personal property register at the time of sale. The top of the run, and 4,400km fewer than the car that made $50,500 fifteen months later
2021auction$750,000Context, excluded
Final car allocated a serial number. Provenance, not market
5 completed Australian sales of 6 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.
Score breakdown
Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
52/100-3
Scarcity25% of total
18/100-35
Demand durability20% of total
64/100-2
Liquidity15% of total
80/100+28
Risk resilience10% of total
74/100+38
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 52/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
52/100Baseline80 pts
− 11.4% of value a year to run-28 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)52 pts
Scarcity25% weight
18/100Baseline10 pts
+ 11,000 registered in Australia, low attrition yet+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)18 pts
Demand durability20% weight
64/100Baseline30 pts
+ Final Australian-built V8 sedan+26 pts
+ Cross-generation badge loyalty+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)64 pts
Liquidity15% weight
80/100Baseline10 pts
+ 43 days on market+42 pts
+ 1,350 sales a year+28 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)80 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
74/100Baseline90 pts
− 11% volatility-8 pts
− Theft exposure-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)74 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 9,000 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$5,480a year
Share of value per year
11.4%
Scheduled servicing$98018%
Tyres, annualised$1,40026%
Registration and CTP$75014%
Insurance$1,50027%
Sinking fund (failure table)$85016%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$49,920
Running costs × 5 years$27,400
Median exit, net of selling cost$35,679
All-in annualised over 5 years$8,328/yr
Share of value per year17.3%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
10.8%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-4.9%a year
The projection falls 15.7 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$48,000
Stamp duty$1,920
Running costs x 5 years$27,400
Selling cost at exit, 3.3% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$79,986
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine6.2L V8 (LS3)
Power / torque304 kW / 570 Nm
0-100 km/h4.9 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,795 kg
Built worldwide15,000
Delivered to Australia15,000
Effective AU survivors11,000
Australian sales / year1,350
Typical days on market43 days
Launch price$55,990
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
Red Hot+4%
Phantom Black+2%
Prussian Steel-1%
Options
Manual over auto+8%
Sunroof+1%
Full Holden dealer history+3%
Odometer sensitivity±3% per 10,000 km vs 90,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$37,279
-22.3% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $48,000.
Even odds it lands between $34,145 and $39,412.
$31,320 lowhigh $41,335
The shaded range is even money and 15% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 95% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$10,721 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $27,400.
Duty and expected selling costs: $3,520.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $41,640, or $8,328 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.
The case for and against
The case for
The last Australian-built V8. New-price money still buys one, which for a closed factory is the floor forming in public.
The case against
11,000 survivors and most are garaged already. The scarcity story is a 2035 story.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1Theft demand for LS3 drivelines
Risk 2Speculative buying then selling waves
Risk 3Manual premium already priced
AFM lifter (auto cars)$3,200
Boot seal water ingress$300
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
Evidence behind this valueMeasured · 5 recorded sales
Carried value
$48,000
Historical price
2018 · $44,0002026 · $48,000
Measured
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Three ordinary results and they fall fast with distance
$71,000 at 3,255km in August 2023, $50,500 at 7,639km in November 2024 and $26,500 at 131,359km in July 2026. They fit at minus 0.901. The raw slope is 5.6 per cent per 10,000 kilometres; the penalty here is set at 3.0 rather than fitted, because three points spanning 128,000 kilometres over three years confounds distance with a falling market. The value moves $65,000 to $48,000. A 12,525-kilometre 2017 VFII made $56,500 in June 2026, which brackets the figure from above. SOURCING: aggregator-surfaced results, unconfirmed against the auction house, the weakest evidence grade here.
This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.
Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Holden Commodore SS-V Redline is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.
Backed by 5 recorded Australian sales of this model. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.
This model, today$48,000
Half of sales are further out than$5,366
The report$249
22×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Holden Commodore SS-V Redline, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.