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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Holden Commodore SS Group A SV
Valuation · Holden · VL · 1988

Holden Commodore SS Group A SV

5.0L V8 (308 EFI) · 180 kW / 380 Nm · 5sp manual · RWD
BUYRated within the over $100k band · 30 of 104 at this money
Model value
$212,000
Must gain each year to break even
+4.6%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
67/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$212,000
$175,519 lowhigh $367,380
Calibrated to a thin record
Two genuine build-numbered sales: $221,000 (#349, Aug 2023) and $209,000 (#285, Jun 2026)

Looking at a Commodore for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$212,000
At about 40,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $212,000 · modelled median at five years $247,467
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $209,622 to $310,541
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($175,519 to $367,380). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

Strong within its price band. Scores 67/100, ranking 30 of 104 in the over $100k band. Scarcity is the strongest input, liquidity the weakest.
Running it costs about $7,700 a year (3.6% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $3,303 a year.
The model's five year median is $247,467, a +16.7% move, with the tenth percentile at $175,519.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin2 recorded sales
Off its peak
-9%
Value band
wide
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$3,303 a year all in, +16.7% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$212,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
3 rows on record
$231k$215k$199k
202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $212kwhat the model expects across 46k–60k kmsoldcontext, excluded1 row sits off this scale. Open the list below to see them.
Every row, with its price and note (3) ↓
Library value against the sold record
2 sales · median $215,000
Value $212,000
$209,000$221,000
Aug 2026Seven82Motors$86,000Context, excluded
1988 HSV VL Walkinshaw REPLICA. Not a genuine Group A SV, and recorded to show what the badge alone is worth
Jun 2026Collecting Cars$209,000Sold
SOLD. 26 Jun 2026, St Huberts Island NSW, 45,764km, GENUINE BUILD #285 of 750. Third owner 21 years, garaged since 2005 and driven approx 1,205km in that ownership, HSV Certificate of Authenticity, 9 dated services from 2,587km in 1989
Aug 2023Collecting Cars$221,000Sold
SOLD. 22 Aug 2023, Mona Vale NSW, 59,630km, GENUINE BUILD #349 of 750, three owners. Believed one of only 10 with a dealer-fitted sunroof (a seller belief, not documented). Higher-lift camshaft fitted, which may or may not be a factory option
2 completed Australian sales of 3 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
74/100+5
Scarcity25% of total
100/100+35
Demand durability20% of total
88/100+10
Liquidity15% of total
6/100-26
Risk resilience10% of total
10/100-24
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 67/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
74/100
Baseline80 pts
− 3.6% of value a year to run-6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)74 pts
Scarcity25% weight
100/100
Baseline76 pts
+ Only 750 built, and it was the first car HSV ever produced+18 pts
+ One factory colour only, so a repaint is immediately obvious+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)100 pts
Demand durability20% weight
88/100
Baseline60 pts
+ The Walkinshaw shape is among the most recognised in Australian motorsport+20 pts
+ Group A homologation heritage with direct Bathurst lineage+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)88 pts
Liquidity15% weight
6/100
Baseline10 pts
− Two genuine build-numbered results in three years; replicas appear more often than genuine cars-6 pts
+ 85 days on market+2 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)6 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
10/100
Baseline30 pts
− Replicas are common, well made and openly traded, so build-plate verification is essential-20 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)10 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$7,700a year
Share of value per year
3.6%
Scheduled servicing$1,60021%
Tyres, annualised$90012%
Registration and CTP$80010%
Insurance$2,40031%
Sinking fund (failure table)$2,00026%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$220,480
Running costs × 5 years$38,500
Median exit, net of selling cost$242,467
All-in annualised over 5 years$3,303/yr
Share of value per year1.6%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
4.6%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+3.1%a year
The projection falls 1.4 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$212,000
Stamp duty$8,480
Running costs x 5 years$38,500
Selling cost at exit, 2.4% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$265,236
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine5.0L V8 (308 EFI)
Power / torque180 kW / 380 Nm
0-100 km/h6.7 s
Transmission5sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,400 kg
Built worldwide750
Delivered to Australia750
Effective AU survivors500
Australian sales / year4
Typical days on market85 days
Launch price$45,000

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Panorama Silver (the only factory colour)0%
Options
Documented build number and HSV build plate+120%
Delivery-mileage originality+45%
Full service history from new+18%
Odometer sensitivity±2.8% per 10,000 km vs 40,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$247,467
+16.7% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $212,000.
Even odds it lands between $209,622 and $310,541.
$175,519 lowhigh $367,380
The shaded range is even money and 48% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 77% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$35,467 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $38,500.
Duty and expected selling costs: $13,480.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $16,515, or $3,303 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

The first car HSV ever built, 750 made, all in one colour, with direct Group A homologation lineage. The shape is unmistakable and the story is central to Australian motorsport. Genuine documented cars are scarce and trade rarely, but two build-numbered examples have now sold at open auction, so the model finally has price discovery rather than an estimate.

The case against

The replica market is the problem. A well-built Walkinshaw replica made $86,000 at auction in August 2026, and replicas appear at Australian auction far more often than genuine cars. Without a documented build number and HSV plate, a buyer is paying homologation money for a body kit, and the roughly $130,000 gap between the replica result and the genuine ones is the largest verification risk in this library. The two genuine results also point down: a better-documented, lower-distance car made $209,000 in June 2026 against $221,000 for a lesser one in August 2023.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Replicas are common, competently built and openly traded
Risk 2Build plate and build number verification is essential
Risk 3Genuine cars rarely reach open auction, so price discovery is poor
Build plate and documentation verificationdocumentation
Correct Panorama Silver respray$12,000
Original bodykit panel replacement$9,000

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 2 recorded sales
Carried value
$212,000
Historical price
2016 · $95,0002026 · $212,000
Thin
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Two genuine build-numbered sales, and this record previously opened with the words

'NO GENUINE SALE ON RECORD'. That was wrong, and it was wrong while a $221,000 result sat in the sales array below it as an undated one-line entry.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (6 more)
The two cars

BUILD #349 OF 750: $221,000 on 22 August 2023, Mona Vale NSW, 59,630 kilometres, three owners, believed one of only ten fitted with a dealer-fitted sunroof, and carrying a HIGHER-LIFT CAMSHAFT that may or may not be a factory option. BUILD #285 OF 750: $209,000 on 26 June 2026, St Huberts Island NSW, 45,764 kilometres, third owner for twenty-one years, garaged since 2005 and driven about 1,205 kilometres in that ownership, HSV Certificate of Authenticity, nine dated services running back to 2,587 kilometres in 1989.

The market fell and the fall is larger than the headline

At the 40,000 kilometres this record expects and 2.8 per cent per 10,000, the 2023 car normalises to about $233,900 and the 2026 car to about $212,400 - a 9.2 per cent fall over thirty-four months, or roughly 3.3 per cent a year.

And the 2026 car is the better object

Twenty-one years with one owner, a Certificate of Authenticity, unbroken service history from 1989, against a 2023 car with a non-standard camshaft and an unverified sunroof claim. A better car making less money three years later understates nothing.

This record moves $200,000 to $212,000,

Which is the 2026 sale normalised, and it was previously carrying a value BELOW both counted results.

The replica evidence stands and is still the most useful thing here

Seven82Motors sold a 1988 HSV VL Walkinshaw REPLICA for $86,000 plus premium in August 2026, in a sale that also included a VK HDT Blue Meanie replica at $76,000 and a VS GTSR replica at $50,500. A replica at $86,000 against documented cars at $209,000 to $221,000 prices the build plate at roughly $130,000. Any lot described as a Walkinshaw without a build number should be treated as a replica until proven otherwise - the Falcon GT-HO Phase III shows the same pattern, a replica at $98,000 against genuine cars at $488,888.

The unverified claim

'one of only ten with a dealer-fitted sunroof' is the seller's belief, not a documented figure, and no HSV record supports a ten-car sunroof count. It is recorded because it was said, not because it is established.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Holden Commodore SS Group A SV is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$212,000
Half of sales are further out than$23,700
The report$249
95×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
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