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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Porsche Cayman GT4
Valuation · Porsche · 981 · 2015-16

Porsche Cayman GT4

3.8L NA flat six · 283 kW / 420 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the over $100k band · 51 of 104 at this money
Model value
$185,000
Must gain each year to break even
+6.8%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
62/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$185,000
$154,465 lowhigh $279,524
Calibrated to a thin record
Three Australian results from May 2023 to September 2024, $158,000 to $188,000, and two of the three cars carry enlarged replacement engines. These prices reach this library through a third-party compiler rather than from the selling house: Collecting Cars publishes the car, the date, the suburb, the odometer and the condition report, and puts the final figure behind a login. They are carried as evidence on that basis and the provenance is stated here so it can be weighed.

Looking at a Cayman for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$185,000
At about 38,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $185,000 · modelled median at five years $209,491
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $180,547 to $246,328
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($154,465 to $279,524). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 62/100, ranking 51 of 104 in the over $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $11,710 a year (6.3% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $9,254 a year.
The model's five year median is $209,491, a +13.2% move, with the tenth percentile at $154,465.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin3 recorded sales
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$9,254 a year all in, +13.2% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$185,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
3 rows on record
$196k$174k$153k
202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $185kwhat the model expects across 24k–37k kmsold
Every row, with its price and note (3) ↓
Library value against the sold record
3 sales · median $160,420
Value $185,000
$158,000$188,000
Sep 2024AutoMarkets$158,000Sold
SOLD. D 19 Sep 2024, 36,100km. 2016 981 Cayman GT4.;.
Apr 2024AutoMarkets$160,420Sold
SOLD. D 2 Apr 2024, Mosman NSW, 36,656km. 2016 manual, Guards Red over black leather and Alcantara, Clubsport Package, engine modified to 4.2L / 302kW with various uprated components, disclosed minor prior damage repaired, partial driver's-side repaint, PPF fitted.
May 2023AutoMarkets$188,000Sold
SOLD. D 1 May 2023, Greystanes NSW, 24,433km. 2016 manual, Carrara White Metallic over black leather and Alcantara, engine upgraded from 3.8L to 4.25L, one owner from new, full service history, minor bonnet stone chips, driver's bolster creasing.
3 completed Australian sales of 3 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
74/100+5
Scarcity25% of total
58/100-7
Demand durability20% of total
86/100+8
Liquidity15% of total
44/100+12
Risk resilience10% of total
15/100-19
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 62/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
74/100
Baseline84 pts
− 6.3% of value a year to run-16 pts
+ Below its Australian list price+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)74 pts
Scarcity25% weight
58/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 150 survivors estimated in Australia+38 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)58 pts
Demand durability20% weight
86/100
Baseline68 pts
+ Manual only, no PDK was offered, and the market has noticed+14 pts
+ Roughly one hundred and fifty survive in Australia+10 pts
− Nobody knows how many were built and the estimates differ 2.5 times-6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)86 pts
Liquidity15% weight
44/100
Baseline12 pts
+ 90 days on market+22 pts
+ 12 sales a year+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)44 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
15/100
Baseline48 pts
− Bore scoring on the DFI 3.8 is a $67,500 event-16 pts
− Two of the three local auction cars have enlarged engines-10 pts
− Thin transaction record-7 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)15 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 3,619 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$11,710a year
Share of value per year
6.3%
Scheduled servicing$2,64023%
Tyres, annualised$1,79015%
Registration and CTP$1,41012%
Insurance$3,34029%
Sinking fund (failure table)$2,53022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$192,400
Running costs × 5 years$58,550
Median exit, net of selling cost$204,681
All-in annualised over 5 years$9,254/yr
Share of value per year5.0%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
6.8%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+2.5%a year
The projection falls 4.3 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$185,000
Stamp duty$7,400
Running costs x 5 years$58,550
Selling cost at exit, 2.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$257,649
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine3.8L NA flat six
Power / torque283 kW / 420 Nm
0-100 km/h4.4 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,340 kg
Built worldwideNot established
Delivered to Australia160
Effective AU survivors150
Australian sales / year12
Typical days on market90 days
Launch price$189,900

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Original paint, unresprayed+6%
Guards Red or Carrara White Metallic, as the local cars wear+2%
A partial repaint after disclosed damage-8%
Options
A documented borescope showing no bore scoring+12%
Standard 3.8 rather than an enlarged replacement engine+10%
Clubsport package, original and complete+4%
Odometer sensitivity±1.9% per 10,000 km vs 38,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$209,491
+13.2% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $185,000.
Even odds it lands between $180,547 and $246,328.
$154,465 lowhigh $279,524
The shaded range is even money and 36% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 65% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$24,491 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $58,550.
Duty and expected selling costs: $12,210.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $46,270, or $9,254 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

Manual only, no PDK was ever offered, and roughly 150 survive in Australia against a $189,900 launch price. It bottomed around 2019 to 2020 and rose through 2021 to 2023, which is the shape a modern car makes on its way to being collected.

The case against

Two of the three Australian auction cars run engines enlarged to 4.2 or 4.25 litres, so the local price record does not describe a standard car at all. Bore scoring on the DFI 3.8 is a $67,500 rebuild against a $185,000 car and the only defence is a borescope.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Bore scoring on the DFI 3.8 flat six at $67,500
Risk 2Enlarged replacement engines in two of the three local auction cars
Risk 3Every production and delivery figure for this model is an estimate
Bore scoring on the DFI 3.8 flat-six, engine rebuild or replacement - borescope before purchase$67,500
PCCB carbon-ceramic rotors, if optioned, replacement$30,000
Clutch on tracked cars$7,500
Steel discs and pads$7,500
Cup 2 tyres, set fitted$4,250
Water pump, coolant system and thermostat housing$3,500

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 3 recorded sales
Carried value
$185,000
Historical price
2016 · $136,9002026 · $185,000
Thin
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Three Australian figures exist and two of the three cars have had their engines enlarged

A May 2023 sale at $188,000 on a 24,433km car and an April 2024 sale at $160,420 on a 36,656km car both describe cars converted from 3.8 litres to 4.2 or 4.25 litres, the second with disclosed prior damage and a partial repaint. The September 2024 figure of $158,000 at 36,100km is the only one that reads as a standard car and its source listing could not be identified. All three are carried, and the useful thing about them is not the level but the pattern: two of the three cars in the entire Australian record are running enlarged replacement engines. Using this set as a plain 981 GT4 index without that adjustment is the single most available mistake on this model.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (2 more)
Borescope before you buy

Bore scoring on the DFI 3.8 is a $67,500 rebuild against a $185,000 car, so more than a third of the value rides on an inspection, and it is presumably why two of the three local cars are running replacement engines.

Nobody knows how many were built

Porsche has called the figure confidential and public estimates run from about 2,500 to 6,500, a 2.5 times spread, so none is carried. The Australian figure is weaker still: an owner-community estimate of about 200 across Australia and New Zealand, which is forum evidence and is marked as such.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Porsche Cayman GT4 is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$185,000
Half of sales are further out than$20,681
The report$249
83×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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Cayman for sale?Priced by a person, $249