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Valuation · BMW · E46 · 2000-05
BMW 3 Series 330i
3.0L NA inline six (M54) · 170 kW / 300 Nm · 5sp manual · RWD
AVOIDRated within the under $30k band · 43 of 46 at this money
Research estimate
$11,500
Must gain each year to break even
+24.0%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
31/100
Scored against the under $30k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$11,500
$8,821 lowhigh $16,798
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.
Looking at a 3 Series for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$11,500
At about 210,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.
We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.
Price history
Today $11,500 · modelled median at five years $13,388
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $10,986 to $15,182
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($8,821 to $16,798). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
The numbers argue against it. Scores 31/100, ranking 43 of 46 in the under $30k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, ownership economics the weakest.
Running it costs about $4,060 a year (35.3% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $3,874 a year.
The model's five year median is $13,388, a +16.4% move, with the tenth percentile at $8,821.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$3,874 a year all in, +16.4% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$11,500
Recorded sales
Every recorded observation, and when
1 row on recordEvery row, with its price and note (1) ↓
2021Collecting Cars$11,750Context, excluded
SOLD. 3 Dec 2021, Sydney NSW, 97,452km. The lot page CONFIRMS a 2004 330i, delivered new at BMW Sydney in July 2004 and kept by one private owner for seventeen years - black over beige leather with walnut inlays, heated seats, sunroof, stamped logbook, contract of purchase and ten dated service entries from 22,066km. It remains CONTEXT ONLY for a different and now-certain reason: it is a FIVE-SPEED AUTOMATIC and this record describes the manual
0 completed Australian sales of 1 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.
Score breakdown
Against the under $30k band median
46 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
0/100-35
Scarcity25% of total
25/100-16
Demand durability20% of total
66/100+10
Liquidity15% of total
58/100-1
Risk resilience10% of total
32/100-5
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 31/100. Medians are computed live from the 46 cars currently in the under $30k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
0/100Baseline80 pts
− 35.3% of value a year to run-88 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)0 pts
Scarcity25% weight
25/100Baseline20 pts
+ 4,261 registered in Australia, manuals a small subset+5 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)25 pts
Demand durability20% weight
66/100Baseline44 pts
+ M54 straight six regarded as one of BMW's best NA engines+16 pts
+ Rear-drive manual sedans increasingly rare in the wider market+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)66 pts
Liquidity15% weight
58/100Baseline42 pts
+ Active enthusiast market, 32 days on market+16 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)58 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
32/100Baseline48 pts
− Cooling system plastic components fail with age-10 pts
− VANOS unit wear on higher-km cars-6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)32 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 8,936 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$4,060a year
Share of value per year
35.3%
Scheduled servicing$95023%
Tyres, annualised$68017%
Registration and CTP$80020%
Insurance$98024%
Sinking fund (failure table)$65016%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$11,960
Running costs × 5 years$20,300
Median exit, net of selling cost$12,888
All-in annualised over 5 years$3,874/yr
Share of value per year33.7%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
24.0%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+3.1%a year
The projection falls 20.9 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$11,500
Stamp duty$460
Running costs x 5 years$20,300
Selling cost at exit, 4.3% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$33,726
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine3.0L NA inline six (M54)
Power / torque170 kW / 300 Nm
0-100 km/h6.7 s
Transmission5sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,450 kg
Built worldwide1,200,000
Delivered to Australia18,000
Effective AU survivors4,261
Australian sales / year520
Typical days on market32 days
Launch price$74,900
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
Titanium Silver+1%
Black+2%
Topaz Blue+3%
Options
Manual (rare on 330i)+6%
M Sport package+4%
Individual paint+2%
Odometer sensitivity±1.3% per 10,000 km vs 210,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$13,388
+16.4% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $11,500.
Even odds it lands between $10,986 and $15,182.
$8,821 lowhigh $16,798
The shaded range is even money and 38% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 75% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$1,888 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $20,300.
Duty and expected selling costs: $960.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $19,370, or $3,874 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.
The case for and against
The case for
The M54 straight six is regarded as one of BMW's best naturally aspirated engines, and rear-drive manual sedans of this type are increasingly rare in the broader market. Values have nearly doubled since 2016 as buyers seek analogue driving cars.
The case against
Cooling system plastic components are a known age-related failure point regardless of mileage, and VANOS units wear on higher-km examples. European parts and labour cost noticeably more than equivalent Japanese cars.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1Cooling system plastic failure (radiator/expansion tank)
Risk 2VANOS solenoid wear
Risk 3Subframe bushing wear on high-km cars
Cooling system overhaul$1,400
VANOS seal kit$900
Subframe bush replacement$1,100
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
Evidence behind this valueResearched · 0 recorded sales
Carried value
$11,500
Historical price
2016 · $6,8002026 · $11,500
Researched
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
One Australian lot sits on this record and it is not counted
A 2004 330i with 97,452 kilometres made $11,750 in Sydney in December 2021 - delivered new at BMW Sydney in July 2004, one private owner for seventeen years, black over beige with walnut inlays, a stamped logbook and ten dated service entries from 22,066km. The lot page settles what the car is, and settles it against this record at the same time: it is a FIVE-SPEED AUTOMATIC and this record describes the manual. It is held as context because an Australian E46 auction figure is worth having on the page, and it is not used to move the value.
Read the rest of the evidence notes (1 more)
The manual 330i remains unmeasured here
And the value is research against the cars either side of it. SOURCING: aggregator-surfaced auction results, not confirmed against the auction house, the weakest evidence grade in this library.
What we will not sell you
We will not price a BMW 3 Series against an advertisement.
No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a BMW 3 Series 330i, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.