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Valuation · BMW · F87 · 2018-21
BMW M2 Competition
3.0L twin-turbo six (S55) · 302 kW / 550 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the $30k to $100k band · 68 of 94 at this money
Model value
$70,000
Must gain each year to break even
+10.0%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
51/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Measured
Four or more recorded Australian sales
$70,000
$40,972 lowhigh $62,584
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Looking at an M2 for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$70,000
At about 40,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.
A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report
Price history
Today $70,000 · modelled median at five years $53,723
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $47,016 to $58,384
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($40,972 to $62,584). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
A defensible case with reservations. Scores 51/100, ranking 68 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Risk resilience is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $7,350 a year (10.5% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $11,585 a year.
The model's five year median is $53,723, a -23.3% move, with the tenth percentile at $40,972.
Value calibrated to recorded sales.
Evidence
Measured4 recorded sales
Off its peak
-29%
Value band
tight
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$11,585 a year all in, -23.3% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity requires a decade of attrition
Negotiate from$70,000
Recorded sales
Every recorded observation, and when
4 rows on record$100k$72k$43k
2023202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $70kwhat the model expects across 38k–88k kmsold
Every row, with its price and note (4) ↓
Library value against the sold record
4 sales · median $59,250Value $70,000
$49,500$71,000
2026Collecting Cars$51,500Sold
SOLD. 9 Jun 2026, Lidcombe NSW, 88,265km, automatic
Mar 2025Collecting Cars$49,500Sold
SOLD. 31 Mar 2025, Heidelberg VIC, 70,413km. 2016 F87 M2, N55 six-cylinder, six-speed MANUAL, Alpine White III over black Dakota with blue stitching. M Performance exhaust. Eight dated BMW services from 1,618km in October 2016 to 68,357km in November 2024. The only manual N55 in this record
2024Collecting Cars$67,000Sold
SOLD. 17 Sep 2024, Melbourne VIC, 38,151km, MANUAL
2022Collecting Cars$71,000Sold
SOLD. 27 Apr 2022, West Pennant Hills NSW, 69,200km, automatic
4 completed Australian sales of 4 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.
Score breakdown
Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
54/100-1
Scarcity25% of total
17/100-36
Demand durability20% of total
67/100+1
Liquidity15% of total
66/100+14
Risk resilience10% of total
72/100+36
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 51/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
54/100Baseline80 pts
− 10.5% of value a year to run-26 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)54 pts
Scarcity25% weight
17/100Baseline10 pts
+ 2,162 registered in Australia, low attrition+7 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)17 pts
Demand durability20% weight
67/100Baseline35 pts
+ Modern M-car benchmark consensus+22 pts
+ Manual compact RWD coupe scarcity ahead+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)67 pts
Liquidity15% weight
66/100Baseline10 pts
+ 47 days on market+40 pts
+ 300 sales a year+16 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)66 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
72/100Baseline90 pts
− Crank hub debate (rare stock)-8 pts
− 12% volatility-10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)72 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 6,154 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$7,350a year
Share of value per year
10.5%
Scheduled servicing$1,90026%
Tyres, annualised$1,15016%
Registration and CTP$75010%
Insurance$1,90026%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,65022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$72,800
Running costs × 5 years$36,750
Median exit, net of selling cost$51,623
All-in annualised over 5 years$11,585/yr
Share of value per year16.6%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
10.0%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-5.2%a year
The projection falls 15.2 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$70,000
Stamp duty$2,800
Running costs x 5 years$36,750
Selling cost at exit, 3.0% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$112,938
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine3.0L twin-turbo six (S55)
Power / torque302 kW / 550 Nm
0-100 km/h4.2 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,550 kg
Built worldwide60,000
Delivered to Australia2,900
Effective AU survivors2,162
Australian sales / year300
Typical days on market47 days
Launch price$104,900
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
Long Beach Blue+5%
Hockenheim Silver+2%
Black Sapphire-1%
Options
Manual over DCT+6%
M Performance exhaust (factory-fit, receipts)+1%
Sunroof delete+1%
Odometer sensitivity±4.2% per 10,000 km vs 40,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$53,723
-23.3% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $70,000.
Even odds it lands between $47,016 and $58,384.
$40,972 lowhigh $62,584
The shaded range is even money and 24% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 96% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$16,277 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $36,750.
Duty and expected selling costs: $4,900.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $57,925, or $11,585 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.
The case for and against
The case for
Already spoken of as the modern E46 M3. Manual Competitions hold a visible premium and the decay rate is slowing.
The case against
Still shedding 4 to 5% a year and 2,500 local cars. The classic case needs another five years of depreciation first.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1Tuned examples
Risk 2DCT cars diluting values
Risk 3Track use hidden in histories
Crank hub (tuned cars)$4,500
Carbon buildup walnut blast$900
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
Evidence behind this valueMeasured · 4 recorded sales
Carried value
$70,000
Historical price
2020 · $98,0002026 · $70,000
Measured
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Four Australian results
$71,000 at 69,200km in April 2022, $67,000 at 38,151km in September 2024, $49,500 at 70,413km in March 2025 and $51,500 at 88,265km in June 2026. They fit against distance at minus 0.583 with 4.5 per cent per 10,000 kilometres against the 1.4 assumed here, and return about $67,800 at the 40,000 this record expects. The value moved $75,000 to $70,000 and is held there, just above the fit.
Read the rest of the evidence notes (2 more)
The trend is down and the sample is small
The two most recent results are the two weakest, price against date correlates at minus 0.829, and distance and date pull together across four points, so neither term is cleanly measured.
The manual premium is not visible in these four
The manuals made $67,000 and $49,500 and the automatics $71,000 and $51,500, but the manual pair is one low-distance car and one high-distance one, which is not enough to price a gearbox. SOURCING: aggregator-surfaced results, unconfirmed against the auction house, the weakest evidence grade here.
This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.
Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that BMW M2 Competition is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.
Backed by 4 recorded Australian sales of this model. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.
This model, today$70,000
Half of sales are further out than$7,825
The report$249
31×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a BMW M2 Competition, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.