Ferrari 360 Spider

- they correlate at plus 0.05 across the seven - BUT A STRAIGHT TIME LINE NO LONGER DESCRIBES THIS MARKET. The joint fit returns MINUS $3,700 A YEAR on an R-squared of 0.22 with both September 2026 results in, against MINUS $5,900 on 0.41 with one of them and MINUS $11,700 on 0.82 with neither. The series fell from a 2022 peak to a 2025 trough and has risen since, and a line through that shape fits neither half.

Fitted to the 25,000 kilometres this record expects, it put August 2026 at $98,400, which is where the $100,000 came from.

One observation moved the answer fourteen thousand dollars and took half the explanatory power of the trend with it, which is the honest measure of how thin a record this size is.

$165,500 at Shannons in May 2022, at the top of that market. A $150,500 Collecting Cars result two weeks earlier confirms the level; everything since has been lower.

It said the Modena F1 was fitted at $106,000 and the Spider carried 3.8 per cent over it. The Modena had been revalued to $120,000 earlier that month, and the two records expect different distances, so the comparison was wrong twice. At a common 50,000 kilometres the Spider now returns $130,500 against the Modena's $120,000, a premium of 8.8 per cent, against an American benchmark of about six for the open body. Before this record held any 2026 Spider it said the two had converged and the open body commanded nothing here.

It is kept because seven cars cannot disprove a coefficient, but the sample says the true figure is nearer zero, and it is the single most questionable number on this record. PROVENANCE: four of the eight are Asian-market imports - three from Hong Kong and the Coburg North car from Singapore - and they include both September 2026 results. The cheapest in the set is still the car sold unregistered after compliance, at $105,000.

The $127,500 hammer at Werribee on 11 September 2026 was filed in the 360 Modena entry, whose own row for it opened with the words THE FIRST SPIDER IN THIS RECORD, which is otherwise built entirely from Modena coupes. It has been moved here, where a Spider belongs, on 28 September 2026.

Normalised to the 25,000 kilometres this record expects and indexed on the supercar series, it is $134,900 against a median of $103,200 across the five results that came before it, and every one of those five is 2025 or older. This entry had no 2026 evidence at all and did not know it.

Curve-normalised to 25,000 kilometres and indexed on the supercar series, the five older cars with odometers median $103,200 and the 2026 car sits at $134,900. The joint date-and-distance fit on all six says $112,800. The date-only fit on all seven says $110,100. Shrinking the one new observation against the five older ones at the weight this library uses on a thin fit elsewhere, a fifth, says $109,600.

And the fourth is a median of cars every one of which is 2025 or older. $110,000 is the middle of the three that agree, not a split of the difference with the fourth.

The supercar index, fitted on 455 sales, has the segment down eleven per cent from 2025 into 2026. This record's only 2026 observation is thirty-one per cent above its own indexed median. One of those two is wrong and one sale cannot say which.

Holding $100,000 meant carrying a figure this record's own headline derivation had stopped supporting, which is the fault that sent the 456 GTA call thirty-seven per cent wrong.

And if it lands under $110,000 this entry will say so and move back.

The Coburg North Spider made $133,500 at no reserve on 27 September, with no service file in the seller's hands, a reprogrammed ECU, aftermarket wheels, a Tubi and one key - more than the Werribee car with ten dated services. Two Spider results a fortnight apart and five per cent apart answer the question one could not: for this model, the segment index's fall into 2026 is wrong.

Carried to 25,000 kilometres on this record's curve the two hammers are $134,900 and $140,000, and $137,500 is their mean. Run back out to the 50,000 kilometres both cars had, it returns $130,500, which is what they made. The fits are not used, because a straight line through a series that fell to 2025 and rose after it describes neither half.

The Coburg North call took eight off for the missing file, six for the reflash, three for the wheels, two for the Tubi and two for one key. Against this value those rows would still have called the car about $108,000, nineteen per cent under the hammer. On a no-reserve 360 Spider in 2026 the room paid for the car and did not discount the paperwork, and until another result says otherwise a call on this record should not lean on those rows.

A call on a Spider running today is anchored on the most recent comparable rather than on a median whose newest member is fifteen months old, and until 28 September this record could not offer that comparable because it was in the wrong entry. The Coburg North call of 24 September was built on the 2025 results and read $80,000; rebuilt on the Werribee car on the 28th it read $104,000. The car had hammered at $133,500 the day before that rebuild, so the call is graded on the $80,000, forty per cent low, and the rebuild would have been twenty-two per cent low as well.