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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Ferrari 458 Italia
Valuation · Ferrari · F142 · 2010-15

Ferrari 458 Italia

4.5L NA V8 · 419 kW / 540 Nm · 7sp DCT · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the over $100k band · 62 of 104 at this money
Model value
$360,000
Must gain each year to break even
+5.7%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
59/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$360,000
$237,194 lowhigh $464,607
Calibrated to a thin record
One Australian result at $330,000, against two dealer asks 11 to 25 per cent above it. 36 international lots
Measured across this library, a value resting on a single Australian result runs high about six times in ten, by a median of five per cent.

Looking at a 458 Italia for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$360,000
At about 25,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $360,000 · modelled median at five years $346,352
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $288,935 to $408,554
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($237,194 to $464,607). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 59/100, ranking 62 of 104 in the over $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, liquidity the weakest.
Running it costs about $18,050 a year (5.0% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $25,260 a year.
The model's five year median is $346,352, a -3.8% move, with the tenth percentile at $237,194.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin1 recorded sale
Off its peak
-14%
Value band
wide
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$25,260 a year all in, -3.8% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$360,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
3 rows on record
$403k$362k$321k
202520262027
the value this record published, year by yearnow $360ksoldasking1 row sits off this scale. Open the list below to see them.
Every row, with its price and note (3) ↓
2026ASK$449,990Asking
ASKING. 2010, 22,568km, dealer VIC. A listing, not a transaction
2026ASK$399,990Asking
ASKING. 2011, 23,418km, dealer NSW. A listing, not a transaction
Aug 2025Collecting Cars$330,000Sold
SOLD. 31 Aug 2025, Marrickville NSW, 46,112km, AUSTRALIAN-MARKET, first registered Apr 2011, third owner. Bianco Avus over Nero, carbon-ceramics, carbon driver zone, seven dated services from 12,142km in 2013. Aftermarket sports exhaust with the ENGINE WARNING LIGHT ON as a result; damage under both bumpers. The first and only Australian transaction on this record
1 completed Australian sale of 3 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
68/100-1
Scarcity25% of total
47/100-18
Demand durability20% of total
81/100+3
Liquidity15% of total
21/100-11
Risk resilience10% of total
72/100+38
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 59/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
68/100
Baseline80 pts
− 5.0% of value a year to run-12 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)68 pts
Scarcity25% weight
47/100
Baseline25 pts
+ 403 registered in Australia+22 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)47 pts
Demand durability20% weight
81/100
Baseline45 pts
+ Last NA V8 mid-engine Ferrari+28 pts
+ Design consensus classic+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)81 pts
Liquidity15% weight
21/100
Baseline0 pts
+ 92 days on market+15 pts
+ 40 sales a year+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)21 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
72/100
Baseline90 pts
− 10% volatility, mature market-8 pts
− Service history sensitivity extreme-10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)72 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$18,050a year
Share of value per year
5.0%
Scheduled servicing$4,20023%
Tyres, annualised$2,10012%
Registration and CTP$7504%
Insurance$5,80032%
Sinking fund (failure table)$5,20029%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$374,400
Running costs × 5 years$90,250
Median exit, net of selling cost$338,352
All-in annualised over 5 years$25,260/yr
Share of value per year7.0%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
5.7%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-0.8%a year
The projection falls 6.5 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$360,000
Stamp duty$14,400
Running costs x 5 years$90,250
Selling cost at exit, 2.2% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$475,210
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine4.5L NA V8
Power / torque419 kW / 540 Nm
0-100 km/h3.4 s
Transmission7sp DCT
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,485 kg
Built worldwide15,000
Delivered to Australia480
Effective AU survivors403
Australian sales / year40
Typical days on market92 days
Launch price$526,950

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Giallo Modena+4%
Rosso Corsa+3%
Nero (black)+2%
Bianco Avus+1%
Grigio Silverstone0%
Options
Carbon fibre interior package+4%
Carbon race seats+3%
Alcantara and extended leather trim+2%
Cavallino headrests and contrast stitching+1%
Front lift system+2%
Full luggage and books+3%
Odometer sensitivity±1.8% per 10,000 km vs 25,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$346,352
-3.8% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $360,000.
Even odds it lands between $288,935 and $408,554.
$237,194 lowhigh $464,607
The shaded range is even money and 41% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 72% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$13,648 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $90,250.
Duty and expected selling costs: $22,400.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $126,300, or $25,260 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

The last naturally aspirated V8 Ferrari has been flat for a decade, which for a Ferrari is the base camp before the climb.

The case against

Flat is the operative word. Capital parked here earned nothing nominal for ten years while costing $18,000 a year to hold. The Australian record is one transaction deep, so the value is a single result adjusted for condition rather than a measured market, even though the international market for it is the healthiest of any car in this library.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1History gaps destroy value
Risk 2Grey imports discount market
Risk 3Turbo-era 488 price shadow
Annual major service$4,200
Front lifter system$5,600

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 1 recorded sale
Carried value
$360,000
Historical price
2016 · $420,0002026 · $360,000
Thin
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
One Australian transaction against two dealer asks, and the asks were 11 to 25 per cent high

$330,000 at Marrickville NSW on 31 August 2025: an AUSTRALIAN-MARKET car first registered April 2011, third owner, 46,112 kilometres, Bianco Avus over Nero, carbon-ceramics, seven dated services from 12,142 kilometres in 2013. Against that this record was carrying $400,000, set from asks of $449,990 and $399,990 on cars at around 23,000 kilometres.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (2 more)
The arithmetic

At 46,112 kilometres against the 25,000 expected here, the odometer adjustment is minus 3.8 per cent, so the sale normalises to about $343,000. The car had damage under both bumpers, wear on the driver's bolster, and AN ENGINE WARNING LIGHT ILLUMINATED because of its aftermarket exhaust - a fault a buyer prices even when the cause is benign. Allowing 5 per cent to put those right gives about $360,000 for a clean car, and that is the value.

An ask is a seller's opening position

This record read two of them as a price and sat 11 per cent above the only transaction anyone has. That is the whole correction.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Ferrari 458 Italia is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$360,000
Half of sales are further out than$40,245
The report$249
162×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Ferrari 458 Italia, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

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458 Italia for sale?Priced by a person, $249