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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Holden Torana GTR XU-1
Valuation · Holden · LJ · 1972-73

Holden Torana GTR XU-1

3.3L inline six (202 triple-carb) · 157 kW / 305 Nm · 4sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the over $100k band · 38 of 104 at this money
Model value
$145,000
Must gain each year to break even
+6.2%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
65/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Measured
Four or more recorded Australian sales
$145,000
$122,121 lowhigh $216,311
Calibrated to recorded sales
Twelve counted Australian sales, 2016 to 2024, at Shannons, Lloyds, Burns & Co and Collecting Cars

Looking at a Torana for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$145,000
At about 60,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $145,000 · modelled median at five years $157,442
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $138,863 to $188,407
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($122,121 to $216,311). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 65/100, ranking 38 of 104 in the over $100k band. Scarcity is the strongest input, liquidity the weakest.
Running it costs about $7,900 a year (5.4% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $7,332 a year.
The model's five year median is $157,442, a +8.6% move, with the tenth percentile at $122,121.
Value calibrated to recorded sales.
Evidence
Measured12 recorded sales
Off its peak
-26%
Value band
wide
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$7,332 a year all in, +8.6% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$145,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
17 rows on record
$327k$181k$34k
2015201720192021202320252027
the value this record published, year by yearnow $145ksoldaskingdid not sellcontext, excluded1 row sits off this scale. Open the list below to see them.
Every row, with its price and note (17) ↓
Library value against the sold record
12 sales · median $138,500
Value $145,000
$66,000$295,000
2025AMCS$195,000Asking
ASKING price, not a sale. Unrestored Tangerine, 1 of 150 Bathurst specials, 84,797 km
May 2024Burns & Co$295,000Sold
24,847-mile one-owner airline-pilot car - then the record for a road-going XU-1
Dec 2023Collecting Cars$145,750Sold
SOLD. 5 Dec 2023, Mardella WA, 48,639 miles (78,277km), bare-metal restoration 2015, 17-year single ownership. IDENTITY: stolen and recovered by NSW Police, who assigned the current chassis number N927954P; the original was ALJ05952A. Replacement 3.3 engine. The dearest of three LJ XU-1s sold within 13 weeks and the only one without its original numbers
Nov 2023Lloyds$142,000Sold
Zodiac Blue matching-numbers XU-1
Sep 2023Lloyds$137,000Sold
LJ GTR XU-1 at the September classic auction
2023Lloyds$348,000Context, excluded
Auction record. Ex-Holden test mule. Provenance, not the market for an ordinary car
Nov 2022Shannons$110,000Not a sale
NOT A SALE. ex-HDT rally car passed in at a $110,000-$140,000 estimate
May 2022Shannons$146,500Sold
1973 LJ GTR XU-1
Feb 2022Shannons$211,500Sold
LJ Torana GTR XU-1 at the height of the 2022 market, the strongest published result for the model
Jul 2019Shannons Melbourne$66,000Sold
1972 LJ GTR-XU1
Apr 2019Shannons Melbourne$183,000Context, excluded
Strike Me Pink. WA Sports Sedan race history, first LJ XU-1 built at Elizabeth. Provenance, not the market for an ordinary car
Aug 2017Shannons Sydney$140,000Sold
1972 LJ GTR XU-1
Jul 2017Shannons Melbourne$102,000Sold
1972 LJ GTR XU-1
Dec 2016Shannons Melbourne$112,500Sold
1973 LJ GTR XU-1 two-door
Nov 2016Shannons Sydney$86,000Sold
1973 LJ GTR XU-1
Jul 2016Shannons Melbourne$70,000Sold
1973 LJ GTR XU-1
May 2015Shannons Melbourne$75,000Not a sale
NOT A SALE. 1970 LC GTR XU-1 passed in at a $75,000-$85,000 estimate
12 completed Australian sales of 17 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
72/100+3
Scarcity25% of total
100/100+35
Demand durability20% of total
76/100-2
Liquidity15% of total
0/100-32
Risk resilience10% of total
32/100-2
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 65/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
72/100
Baseline80 pts
− 5.4% of value a year to run-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)72 pts
Scarcity25% weight
100/100
Baseline78 pts
+ Only 700 built, genuine matching-numbers survivors thinning steadily+18 pts
+ Homologation special developed specifically for Bathurst+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)100 pts
Demand durability20% weight
76/100
Baseline56 pts
+ Bathurst-winning heritage gives it iconic status among Australian collectors+20 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)76 pts
Liquidity15% weight
0/100
Baseline4 pts
− Very thin market, largely trades privately or at specialist auctions, 78 days on market-14 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)0 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
32/100
Baseline40 pts
− Rust in the light-gauge body a real risk factor; identity paperwork matters less to this market than presentation-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)32 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$7,900a year
Share of value per year
5.4%
Scheduled servicing$2,00025%
Tyres, annualised$1,00013%
Registration and CTP$80010%
Insurance$2,20028%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,90024%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$150,800
Running costs × 5 years$39,500
Median exit, net of selling cost$153,642
All-in annualised over 5 years$7,332/yr
Share of value per year5.1%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
6.2%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+1.7%a year
The projection falls 4.5 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$145,000
Stamp duty$5,800
Running costs x 5 years$39,500
Selling cost at exit, 2.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$195,421
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine3.3L inline six (202 triple-carb)
Power / torque157 kW / 305 Nm
0-100 km/h7.5 s
Transmission4sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,180 kg
Built worldwide3,300
Delivered to Australia3,300
Effective AU survivors1,150
Australian sales / year5
Typical days on market78 days
Launch price$4,400

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Strike Me Pink+8%
Lina Mint+5%
Lettuce Alone Green+5%
Glacier White+1%
Options
Matching numbers with log books+4%
Bathurst-specification details verified+8%
Odometer sensitivity±3.2% per 10,000 km vs 60,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$157,442
+8.6% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $145,000.
Even odds it lands between $138,863 and $188,407.
$122,121 lowhigh $216,311
The shaded range is even money and 36% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 54% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$12,442 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $39,500.
Duty and expected selling costs: $9,600.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $36,660, or $7,332 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

A homologation special developed specifically for Bathurst with only 700 built, and genuine matching-numbers survivors are thinning steadily as the fleet ages. Values have more than doubled since 2016 and it carries iconic status among Australian muscle car collectors.

The case against

The market is very thin and largely trades privately or through specialist auctions rather than conventional channels, at an effective 78 days on market. Rust in the light-gauge original body is a real risk factor on unrestored examples. Provenance verification matters legally, but it is not what this market pays for: the dearest of three XU-1s sold in late 2023 carried a police-assigned chassis number and a replacement engine. Both published Australian sales are provenance cars - an ex-Holden test mule and a race-historied first-build - so there is no ordinary XU-1 result on record to price against, and the only recent ordinary figure is an asking price.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Provenance/matching-numbers verification is critical
Risk 2Rust in the light-gauge original body
Risk 3Essentially illiquid outside specialist auctions
Provenance/matching-numbers verificationdocumentation
Rust repair (body/floor)$8,500
Restoration to concours standard$35,000

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueMeasured · 12 recorded sales
Carried value
$145,000
Historical price
2016 · $78,0002026 · $145,000
Measured
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.

143 verified LC/LJ GTR and XU-1 sales range $14,800-$275,000 (australianmusclecarsales.com.au, since 2003). The $348,000 record was an ex-Holden test mule and the $183,000 Strike Me Pink car had Sports Sedan race history; both are provenance results. Approx. 3,300 XU-1s built, many raced or rallied. A 1970 LC GTR XU-1, the earlier sibling of this car, passed in at a $75,000-$85,000 estimate at Shannons in May 2015, which places the market a decade ago well below where it sits now.

Australian auction record

Eight ordinary LJ XU-1s sold at Shannons between 2016 and 2022, from $66,000 to $211,500, with the run rising through the period and peaking in February 2022. Two provenance cars sit far above that band - $183,000 for a race-historied first build and $348,000 for an ex-Holden test mule - and are excluded from the fitted value.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (5 more)
The matching-numbers premium is not supported by the only three-car comparison this record has

Three LJ XU-1s sold within thirteen weeks of each other in late 2023: $137,000 at Lloyds in September, $142,000 at Lloyds in November for a car described as matching-numbers, and $145,750 on 5 December at Mardella WA.

The December car was the dearest of the three and it has neither its original chassis number nor its original engine

It was stolen and recovered by NSW Police, who assigned the chassis number it now carries, N927954P; the original was ALJ05952A. It also runs a replacement 3.3 engine. What it does have is a 2015 bare-metal restoration and seventeen years in one ownership. Set against a documented matching-numbers car sold three weeks earlier, the market paid 2.6 per cent MORE for the reassigned-identity car.

The option premium for

'matching numbers with log books' HAS THEREFORE BEEN CUT FROM 12 PER CENT TO 4. Three cars is a thin comparison and the September and December cars are not like-for-like on condition, so 4 rather than 0: the premium is not disproved, it is unmeasurable at this sample size and 12 was an assertion.

Presentation and restoration appear to outweigh identity in this market,

Which is the opposite of how the risk section of this record reads and is worth knowing before paying for paperwork. The December car normalises to about $154,800 at the 60,000 kilometres this record expects (it showed 48,639 miles, or 78,277 kilometres, at 3.2 per cent per 10,000).

Australian clearance, restated

Fourteen of the sixteen lots recorded here sold and two did not - 87.5 per cent, computed from this entry rather than from every lot ever offered. That is computed from the lots recorded in this entry rather than from every lot ever offered in Australia, so read it as the clearance of this sample rather than of the model. It is included because a failure to sell is evidence about where the market is not, and those lots would otherwise sit in the record doing nothing.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Holden Torana GTR XU-1 is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

Backed by 12 recorded Australian sales of this model. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$145,000
Half of sales are further out than$16,210
The report$249
65×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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