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Valuation · Chrysler · VH · 1971
Chrysler Valiant Charger R/T E38
4.3L Hemi six (265, triple Weber) · 209 kW / 420 Nm · 3sp manual · RWD
BUYRated within the over $100k band · 21 of 104 at this money
Model value
$185,000
Must gain each year to break even
+7.4%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
69/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$185,000
$153,233 lowhigh $281,099
Calibrated to a thin record
One genuine E38 sale, $165,000 at Shannons in 2017
Looking at a Valiant Charger for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$185,000
At about 90,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.
A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report
Price history
Today $185,000 · modelled median at five years $201,183
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $175,961 to $243,219
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($153,233 to $281,099). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
Strong within its price band. Scores 69/100, ranking 21 of 104 in the over $100k band. Scarcity is the strongest input, liquidity the weakest.
Running it costs about $12,750 a year (6.9% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $12,193 a year.
The model's five year median is $201,183, a +8.7% move, with the tenth percentile at $153,233.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin2 recorded sales
Off its peak
-30%
Value band
wide
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
This value sits above every recorded sale logged for the model. That is the specific error calibration keeps finding, so treat it as a ceiling rather than a mid-point.
Short term (1-5 years)$12,193 a year all in, +8.7% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$185,000
Recorded sales
Every recorded observation, and when
4 rows on record$282k$205k$129k
201720192021202320252027
the value this record published, year by yearnow $185ksoldcontext, excluded2 rows sit off this scale. Open the list below to see them.
Every row, with its price and note (4) ↓
Library value against the sold record
2 sales · median $158,250Value $185,000
$151,500$165,000
The library value sits above the highest recorded sale; the evidence note above explains why.
2026AMCS$395,000Context, excluded
An E49, not an E38. Different model, so not the market for this car; recorded to show the ceiling of the Charger range
2026AMCS aggregate$35,000Context, excluded
Bottom of 117 verified Charger sales. An aggregate range endpoint, not the market for any single car
Nov 2020Shannons$151,500Sold
E38 R/T Big Tank coupe, restored, lot 175
May 2017Shannons Melbourne$165,000Sold
VH Charger R/T E38 Bathurst coupe. A genuine E38 with a published price and the only one on record
2 completed Australian sales of 4 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.
Score breakdown
Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
63/100-6
Scarcity25% of total
100/100+35
Demand durability20% of total
82/100+4
Liquidity15% of total
28/100-4
Risk resilience10% of total
40/100+6
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 69/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
63/100Baseline80 pts
− 6.9% of value a year to run-17 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)63 pts
Scarcity25% weight
100/100Baseline82 pts
+ 316 built, of which 224 carried the Track Pack+20 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)100 pts
Demand durability20% weight
82/100Baseline62 pts
+ The 1971 Bathurst homologation Charger, alongside the Phase III and XU-1+14 pts
+ Triple-Weber Hemi six is a genuinely distinctive drivetrain+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)82 pts
Liquidity15% weight
28/100Baseline14 pts
+ 102 days on market+7 pts
+ Part of a 117-sale verified record+7 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)28 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
40/100Baseline66 pts
− Many have had the three-speed swapped for the E49 four-speed, which affects originality-14 pts
− Tribute cars common-12 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)40 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$12,750a year
Share of value per year
6.9%
Scheduled servicing$2,90023%
Tyres, annualised$1,30010%
Registration and CTP$8507%
Insurance$3,80030%
Sinking fund (failure table)$3,90031%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$192,400
Running costs × 5 years$63,750
Median exit, net of selling cost$195,183
All-in annualised over 5 years$12,193/yr
Share of value per year6.6%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
7.4%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+1.7%a year
The projection falls 5.7 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$185,000
Stamp duty$7,400
Running costs x 5 years$63,750
Selling cost at exit, 3.2% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$264,736
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine4.3L Hemi six (265, triple Weber)
Power / torque209 kW / 420 Nm
0-100 km/h6.6 s
Transmission3sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,340 kg
Built worldwide316
Delivered to Australia316
Effective AU survivors190
Australian sales / year6
Typical days on market102 days
Launch price$3,900
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
Hemi Orange+6%
Vitamin C+6%
Limelight+6%
Arctic White0%
Options
Track pack fuel tank+12%
Matching numbers+12%
Odometer sensitivity±2% per 10,000 km vs 90,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$201,183
+8.7% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $185,000.
Even odds it lands between $175,961 and $243,219.
$153,233 lowhigh $281,099
The shaded range is even money and 38% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 55% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$16,183 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $63,750.
Duty and expected selling costs: $13,400.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $60,965, or $12,193 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.
The case for and against
The case for
The 1971 Bathurst homologation Charger, built alongside the Phase III and XU-1 for the same race. 316 built with 224 carrying the Bathurst tank.
The case against
Frequently modified with the later E49 four-speed, which costs originality. The E49 overshadows it and takes the money.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1Original three-speed versus later four-speed swap
Risk 2Tribute verification
Risk 3Rust
Originality verificationdocumentation
Weber rebuild and tune$6,200
Body and rust rectification$24,000
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
Evidence behind this valueThin · 2 recorded sales
Carried value
$185,000
Historical price
2016 · $145,0002026 · $185,000
Thin
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
316 E38s built, 224 of them factory-optioned with the Option 84 Track Pack and 160 litre Bathurst tank. Sits within the 117 verified Charger sales spanning $35,000-$395,000 (australianmusclecarsales.com.au).
Australian result
A VH Charger R/T E38 Bathurst coupe made $165,000 at Shannons Melbourne in May 2017, the only genuine E38 with a published auction price on record. That figure sits well above where this car was previously modelled for 2016 and 2019, so the value history has been lifted to meet it - the model has moved far less over the past decade than the earlier curve implied.
Read the rest of the evidence notes (1 more)
The coefficient moves 6.0 to 2.0 because nothing was measuring 6.0
No counted sale on this record publishes an odometer, so the old figure was an assumption, and at this expected distance it converts to an elasticity of -0.540 against a classic muscle segment fitted at -0.181 on the library's own sales. A twelve per cent cap used to hide the difference. The curve does not, so the assumption had to go.
This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.
Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Chrysler Valiant Charger R/T E38 is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.
The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.
This model, today$185,000
Half of sales are further out than$20,681
The report$249
83×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Chrysler Valiant Charger R/T E38, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.