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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Ford Mustang GT Fastback
Valuation · Ford · S550 · 2015-17

Ford Mustang GT Fastback

5.0L NA V8 (Coyote) · 306 kW / 530 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
AVOIDRated within the $30k to $100k band · 89 of 94 at this money
Model value
$45,000
Must gain each year to break even
+10.1%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
46/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$45,000
$30,877 lowhigh $41,031
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.

Looking at a Mustang for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$45,000
At about 130,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $45,000 · modelled median at five years $37,020
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $33,789 to $39,130
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($30,877 to $41,031). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

The numbers argue against it. Scores 46/100, ranking 89 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $4,830 a year (10.7% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $7,026 a year.
The model's five year median is $37,020, a -17.7% move, with the tenth percentile at $30,877.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin3 recorded sales
Off its peak
-22%
Value band
tight
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$7,026 a year all in, -17.7% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity requires a decade of attrition
Negotiate from$45,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
6 rows on record
$68k$55k$42k
202420252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $45kwhat the model expects across 27k–90k kmsoldcontext, excluded3 rows sit off this scale. Open the list below to see them.
Every row, with its price and note (6) ↓
Library value against the sold record
3 sales · median $48,500
Value $45,000
$47,150$65,500
The library value sits below the lowest recorded sale; the evidence note above explains why.
2026Collecting Cars$35,700Context, excluded
SOLD. 31 Jul 2026, Melbourne VIC, 58,156km, automatic, Moffat tribute. The weakest in the set
2026Collecting Cars$125,000Context, excluded
SOLD. 15 Aug 2026, Nerang QLD, 1km, TICKFORD BATHURST 77 build #1 - a separate market, context only
2026Collecting Cars$107,500Context, excluded
SOLD. 29 Mar 2026, Nerang QLD, 1,166km, TICKFORD BATHURST supercharged - context only
2024Collecting Cars$48,500Sold
SOLD. 27 Nov 2024, Balwyn North VIC, 53,766km, MANUAL
2024Collecting Cars$47,150Sold
SOLD. 19 Dec 2024, Niddrie VIC, 26,700km, automatic
2023Collecting Cars$65,500Sold
SOLD. 6 Apr 2023, Brisbane QLD, 90,111km, MANUAL. Highest price on the highest distance in the set
3 completed Australian sales of 6 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
54/100-1
Scarcity25% of total
18/100-35
Demand durability20% of total
60/100-6
Liquidity15% of total
66/100+14
Risk resilience10% of total
36/100even
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 46/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
54/100
Baseline80 pts
− 10.7% of value a year to run-26 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)54 pts
Scarcity25% weight
18/100
Baseline18 pts
+ 6,800 estimated AU survivors, first RHD-official generation0 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)18 pts
Demand durability20% weight
60/100
Baseline46 pts
+ First factory RHD Mustang since the 1960s, broad appeal+14 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)60 pts
Liquidity15% weight
66/100
Baseline48 pts
+ Active market, 26 days on market+18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)66 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
36/100
Baseline44 pts
− MT-82 manual gearbox has known synchro wear-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)36 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 12,000 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$4,830a year
Share of value per year
10.7%
Scheduled servicing$78016%
Tyres, annualised$1,40029%
Registration and CTP$85018%
Insurance$1,25026%
Sinking fund (failure table)$55011%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$46,800
Running costs × 5 years$24,150
Median exit, net of selling cost$35,820
All-in annualised over 5 years$7,026/yr
Share of value per year15.6%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
10.1%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-3.8%a year
The projection falls 14.0 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$45,000
Stamp duty$1,800
Running costs x 5 years$24,150
Selling cost at exit, 2.7% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$72,894
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine5.0L NA V8 (Coyote)
Power / torque306 kW / 530 Nm
0-100 km/h4.9 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,739 kg
Built worldwide120,000
Delivered to Australia8,500
Effective AU survivors6,800
Australian sales / year380
Typical days on market26 days
Launch price$62,000

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Race Red+4%
Grabber Blue+3%
Shadow Black-1%
Options
Performance Pack (Brembo, Torsen)+6%
Manual over auto+5%
MagneRide (2018 on)+2%
Odometer sensitivity±1% per 10,000 km vs 130,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$37,020
-17.7% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $45,000.
Even odds it lands between $33,789 and $39,130.
$30,877 lowhigh $41,031
The shaded range is even money and 16% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 91% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$7,980 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $24,150.
Duty and expected selling costs: $3,000.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $35,130, or $7,026 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

The first factory right-hand-drive Mustang since the 1960s gave it broad appeal beyond the traditional enthusiast base, and the NA V8 is simple and cheap to maintain. Values have stabilised after early depreciation and it sells quickly at 26 days on market.

The case against

At an estimated 6,800 AU survivors it is not a scarce car, so gains are likely to stay modest rather than sharp. The MT-82 manual gearbox has documented synchro wear issues that show up on cars driven hard.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1MT-82 manual synchro wear
Risk 2Rear axle whine on high-km cars
Risk 3Panel gaps/paint quality variance from factory
MT-82 synchro repair$1,600
Rear axle service$550
Clutch replacement$1,100

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 3 recorded sales
Carried value
$45,000
Historical price
2016 · $58,0002026 · $45,000
Thin
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Three counted Australian results and the odometer runs the wrong way again

The correlation is PLUS 0.931: $65,500 at 90,111km is the highest price on the highest distance, and $47,150 at 26,700km is the lowest price on the lowest.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (5 more)
What is actually sorting them is the gearbox

The two manuals made $65,500 at 90,111km and $48,500 at 53,766km; the one counted automatic made $47,150 at 26,700km. A fourth lot, a Moffat tribute automatic at $35,700 and 58,156km in July 2026, is a tribute car rather than the model this record describes and is excluded - it was the weakest figure in the set and it was dragging the automatic side of this comparison down. On this car the manual is the whole story and distance is noise - the same shape the Honda NSX shows on a completely different vehicle.

No distance penalty is fitted

And the assumed 1.0 stands; three points with the sign inverted cannot support one.

The value moves $52,000 to $45,000,

Below all three counted results, because this record is written to 130,000 kilometres and every one of them sits well under that.

A 9,314-kilometre manual failed to sell

In July 2026 - the lowest-distance car in the set found no buyer.

The tickford Bathurst cars are a separate market

$125,000 for the Bathurst 77 build number 1 at 1 kilometre in August 2026, and $107,500 for a supercharged Bathurst special at 1,166km. Both are held as context. SOURCING: aggregator-surfaced results, unconfirmed against the auction house, the weakest evidence grade here.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Ford Mustang GT Fastback is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$45,000
Half of sales are further out than$5,031
The report$249
20×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Ford Mustang GT Fastback, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

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Mustang for sale?Priced by a person, $249