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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Nissan Silvia Spec R
Valuation · Nissan · S15 · 1999-02

Nissan Silvia Spec R

2.0L turbo four (SR20DET) · 184 kW / 275 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the $30k to $100k band · 46 of 94 at this money
Model value
$45,000
Must gain each year to break even
+10.9%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
54/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Measured
Four or more recorded Australian sales
$45,000
$42,422 lowhigh $59,726
Calibrated to recorded sales
One verified Australian sale, $52,000 in August 2026, plus 14 aggregator-recorded results

Looking at a Silvia for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$45,000
At about 140,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $45,000 · modelled median at five years $51,290
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $46,625 to $55,727
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($42,422 to $59,726). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 54/100, ranking 46 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $5,270 a year (11.7% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $4,652 a year.
The model's five year median is $51,290, a +14.0% move, with the tenth percentile at $42,422.
Value calibrated to recorded sales.
Evidence
Measured9 recorded sales
Off its peak
-2%
Value band
moderate
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$4,652 a year all in, +14.0% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$45,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
9 rows on record
$98k$59k$20k
202220232024202520262027
the value this record published, year by yearnow $45kwhat the model expects across 9k–273k kmsold
Every row, with its price and note (9) ↓
Library value against the sold record
9 sales · median $42,009
Value $45,000
$31,000$77,888
Aug 2026Collecting Cars$52,000Sold
1999 Spec R, Cecil Hills NSW, verified sale closed 20 August - the record's first named Australian transaction
Jul 2026Collecting Cars$38,800Sold
SOLD. 24 Jul 2026, Mornington VIC, 111,869km. 2002 200SX Spec-R, four-speed AUTOMATIC, Pewter over charcoal leather, AUSTRALIAN-DELIVERED and one private owner since it was bought as a Brighton Nissan demonstrator. Seven reported service readings, most without dates. A rear quarter repainted
2026Collecting Cars$59,500Sold
SOLD. 16 Jun 2026, Melbourne VIC, 9,086km, RB25 conversion - not a stock car
Aug 2025Collecting Cars$31,000Sold
SOLD. 1 Aug 2025, Neutral Bay NSW, 139,480km. 1999 Spec-R, six-speed manual, seventeen years with the seller, resprayed from Pewter Metallic to Midnight Purple. Apexi Power FC, Tein coilovers, Brembo discs. Fourteen dated readings from 80,150km in November 2009. Previous door damage, repaired
2025Collecting Cars$37,015Sold
SOLD. 23 Jul 2025, Ashwood VIC, 272,978km. The highest distance in the set and it still made $37,015
2024Collecting Cars$77,888Sold
SOLD. 5 Dec 2024, Adelaide SA, 97,843km. 68 per cent above the fitted line and unrepeated
2024Collecting Cars$45,750Sold
SOLD. 30 Dec 2024, Melbourne VIC, 78,300km, manual conversion
Oct 2021Collecting Cars$42,009Sold
SOLD. 18 Oct 2021, Melbourne VIC, 77,230km. 2001 200SX Spec-R, four-speed AUTOMATIC, Flame Red, AUSTRALIAN-DELIVERED with the Nissan Australia leather interior, no evidence of repair or respray. Five years and 34,639km later the equivalent car made $38,800 - the only clean like-for-like pair in this record
2021Collecting Cars$34,250Sold
SOLD. 25 Jun 2021, Prestons NSW, 176,000km
9 completed Australian sales of 9 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
50/100-5
Scarcity25% of total
46/100-7
Demand durability20% of total
69/100+3
Liquidity15% of total
53/100+1
Risk resilience10% of total
60/100+24
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 54/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
50/100
Baseline80 pts
− 11.7% of value a year to run-30 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)50 pts
Scarcity25% weight
46/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 950 survivors, most modified+26 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)46 pts
Demand durability20% weight
69/100
Baseline35 pts
+ JDM export demand from US 25 year rule+24 pts
+ Last Silvia ever built+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)69 pts
Liquidity15% weight
53/100
Baseline5 pts
+ 55 days on market+36 pts
+ 130 sales a year+12 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)53 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
60/100
Baseline90 pts
− Modification and crash history endemic-22 pts
− 16% volatility-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)60 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 5,490 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$5,270a year
Share of value per year
11.7%
Scheduled servicing$95018%
Tyres, annualised$72014%
Registration and CTP$75014%
Insurance$1,45028%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,40027%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$46,800
Running costs × 5 years$26,350
Median exit, net of selling cost$49,890
All-in annualised over 5 years$4,652/yr
Share of value per year10.3%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
10.9%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+2.7%a year
The projection falls 8.3 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$45,000
Stamp duty$1,800
Running costs x 5 years$26,350
Selling cost at exit, 3.1% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$75,499
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine2.0L turbo four (SR20DET)
Power / torque184 kW / 275 Nm
0-100 km/h5.5 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,240 kg
Built worldwide24,000
Delivered to Australia1,800
Effective AU survivors950
Australian sales / year130
Typical days on market55 days
Launch price$39,990

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Pewter Blue+5%
Brilliant Blue+4%
White0%
Options
Factory aero+3%
Unmodified driveline+8%
Spec R brakes and 6-speed verified (Spec S conversions exist)+6%
Odometer sensitivity±2.2% per 10,000 km vs 140,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$51,290
+14.0% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $45,000.
Even odds it lands between $46,625 and $55,727.
$42,422 lowhigh $59,726
The shaded range is even money and 20% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 68% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$6,290 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $26,350.
Duty and expected selling costs: $3,200.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $23,260, or $4,652 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

US 25 year import eligibility opened in 2024 and export demand is pulling stock offshore. Stock Spec Rs doubled since 2019.

The case against

Nine in ten cars are modified. The stock-car premium is real but stock cars barely exist. The aggregator figures span the whole S15 range rather than the Spec R alone. The first named Australian sale, $52,000 in August 2026, sits above this value - but one result is one result. Internationally the Spec R has been to auction once.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Odometer and identity fraud
Risk 2Crash repairs hidden under kits
Risk 3Export thinning local liquidity
SR20 turbo replacement$2,600
Chassis rail rust check$1,800

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueMeasured · 9 recorded sales
Carried value
$45,000
Historical price
2016 · $22,0002026 · $45,000
Measured
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Nine Australian results fitting at minus 0.510 with 2.2 per cent per 10,000 kilometres,

Against the 1.0 this record assumed. At the 140,000 it expects the curve returns about $44,000 and the value moves $48,000 to $45,000.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (5 more)
The outlier is instructive

$77,888 at 97,843km in Adelaide, December 2024, is 68 per cent above the fitted line at that distance and nothing since has come close.

The badge split applies here as it does on the S14

Silvia-badged cars are Japanese imports, 200SX cars are Australian-delivered, and this library docks an import twelve per cent on a model sold here new. A 272,978-kilometre car still made $37,015, which says the floor on a Spec-R is set by the drivetrain rather than the odometer. SOURCING: aggregator-surfaced results, unconfirmed against the auction house, the weakest evidence grade here.

First named Australian transaction, August 2026

A verified 1999 Spec R at Cecil Hills NSW made $52,000 on Collecting Cars on 20 August. The value here was carried at $48,000 before that lot closed, set from aggregator data whose latest print was $38,800 - so the first named result landed 8% above the carried figure and well above the aggregator's most recent number. The value has not been moved for it: one sale corroborates a level rather than re-setting one, and the car's kilometres and originality were not stated in the result.

Australian evidence

Fourteen recorded Australian auction results averaging $49,739 across a $29,888 to $90,000 range, with the latest at $38,800. Those come from an aggregator rather than named auction houses, and they span the S15 range rather than the Spec R alone - the lesser Spec S is a cheaper car and pulls the average down, while the $90,000 top of the range is well above anything a standard Spec R has been shown to make. The latest result at $38,800 sits meaningfully below the value carried here. INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT, and almost none of it is this car: seven S15 lots appear worldwide and only ONE is a Spec R - US$33,600 at Broad Arrow in August 2025. Four are Varietta cars, the folding-hardtop convertible of which about 1,143 were built, and they are a cheap and slow-selling proposition: JPY992,200 and GBP7,728 when they sold, with three more failing at estimates between GBP10,000 and GBP15,000. One is an Autech Version at JPY5,500,000, a different and dearer car again. So the Spec R has exactly one international auction result in the entire record. No direction, clearance or dispersion is read from seven lots covering three variants.

The gearbox is pooled in this record and that is a known weakness, disclosed rather than fixed

Two of the counted sales name a four-speed automatic (Mornington July 2026 and Melbourne October 2021), one names a six-speed manual and one is a manual conversion. Across this library the fitted value runs about twelve per cent high on automatics and about six per cent low on manuals, so a value blended over both leans against whichever the buyer is actually looking at. With two results a side there is not enough to split the record: fitted separately these four produce a noisier estimate than the pool does, which is the same reason the Supra RZ is left pooled. Read this value as the automatic-inclusive average it is, and expect a stock manual Spec R to sit above it.

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The report prices the car in the advertisement.

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This model, today$45,000
Half of sales are further out than$5,031
The report$249
20×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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