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Valuation · Ford · XA · 1972
Ford Falcon GT-HO Phase IV
5.8L V8 (351 Cleveland) · 261 kW / 540 Nm · 4sp manual (Top Loader) · RWD
BUYRated within the over $100k band · 2 of 104 at this money
Model value
$1,600,000
Must gain each year to break even
+2.6%
The projection clears it. 14 of 244 in the library do.
CarQuant score
76/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$1,600,000
$1,174,996 lowhigh $3,335,980
Calibrated to a thin record
One comparable: $1.75m private sale in 2021, at the market peak. The reported $2m in October 2018 was the race car and is excluded as a provenance result. Only four built, so every sale is an individual negotiation rather than a market
Measured across this library, a value resting on a single Australian result runs high about six times in ten, by a median of five per cent.
Looking at a Falcon GT-HO for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$1,600,000
At about 30,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.
A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report
Price history
Today $1,600,000 · modelled median at five years $1,985,365
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $1,559,111 to $2,695,788
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($1,174,996 to $3,335,980). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
Strong within its price band. Scores 76/100, ranking 2 of 104 in the over $100k band. Scarcity is the strongest input, liquidity the weakest.
Running it costs about $22,750 a year (1.4% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is -$33,523 a year.
The model's five year median is $1,985,365, a +24.1% move, with the tenth percentile at $1,174,996.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin1 recorded sale
Off its peak
-9%
Value band
wide
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)-$33,523 a year all in, +24.1% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$1,600,000
Recorded sales
Every recorded observation, and when
2 rows on record$1.8m$1.5m$1.3m
20192021202320252027
the value this record published, year by yearnow $1.6msoldcontext, excluded1 row sits off this scale. Open the list below to see them.
Every row, with its price and note (2) ↓
2021private sale$1,750,000Sold
One of four built
Oct 2018auction$2,000,000Context, excluded
Race car. Provenance result
1 completed Australian sale of 2 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.
Score breakdown
Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
77/100+8
Scarcity25% of total
100/100+35
Demand durability20% of total
100/100+22
Liquidity15% of total
6/100-26
Risk resilience10% of total
66/100+32
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 76/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
77/100Baseline80 pts
− 1.4% of value a year to run-3 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)77 pts
Scarcity25% weight
100/100Baseline92 pts
+ Four cars exist, the rarest Australian production model of any era+30 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)100 pts
Demand durability20% weight
100/100Baseline74 pts
+ The most mythologised Australian car ever built+20 pts
+ Every example is known and tracked by name+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)100 pts
Liquidity15% weight
6/100Baseline0 pts
+ Sales occur perhaps once a decade and are privately negotiated+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)6 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
66/100Baseline80 pts
− Value rests entirely on documented provenance-14 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)66 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$22,750a year
Share of value per year
1.4%
Scheduled servicing$2,80012%
Tyres, annualised$1,1505%
Registration and CTP$8004%
Insurance$12,00053%
Sinking fund (failure table)$6,00026%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$1,664,000
Running costs × 5 years$113,750
Median exit, net of selling cost$1,945,365
All-in annualised over 5 years-$33,523/yr
Share of value per year-2.1%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
2.6%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+4.4%a year
The projection clears the hurdle by 1.8 points a year. On these assumptions the car covers its own costs and leaves a surplus.
Purchase$1,600,000
Stamp duty$64,000
Running costs x 5 years$113,750
Selling cost at exit, 2.5% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$1,823,333
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine5.8L V8 (351 Cleveland)
Power / torque261 kW / 540 Nm
0-100 km/h6.1 s
Transmission4sp manual (Top Loader)
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,560 kg
Built worldwide4
Delivered to Australia4
Effective AU survivors4
Australian sales / year0
Typical days on market200 days
Launch price$5,350
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
Wild Violet+4%
Yellow Blaze+4%
Options
Documented Phase IV provenance chain+30%
Period competition history+25%
Odometer sensitivity±8% per 10,000 km vs 30,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$1,985,365
+24.1% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $1,600,000.
Even odds it lands between $1,559,111 and $2,695,788.
$1,174,996 lowhigh $3,335,980
The shaded range is even money and 73% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 91% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$385,365 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $113,750.
Duty and expected selling costs: $104,000.
Net cost of five years of ownership: -$167,615, or -$33,523 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.
The case for and against
The case for
Four cars, the homologation special Ford never officially sold, and the only Australian car to have traded at $2 million. Supply cannot increase.
The case against
With four cars and no public market, any valuation is an estimate around individual negotiations. Liquidity is effectively zero and entry requires the seller to want to sell.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1No functioning market to price against
Risk 2Provenance documentation is the entire value
Risk 3Insurance and storage at this level
Independent provenance appraisaldocumentation
Specialist storage per year$6,000
Concours-level maintenance$12,000
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.
Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Ford Falcon GT-HO Phase IV is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.
The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.
This model, today$1,600,000
Half of sales are further out than$178,865
The report$249
718×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Ford Falcon GT-HO Phase IV, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.
Australia · to 1984