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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Ford Falcon GT-HO Phase III
Valuation · Ford · XY · 1971

Ford Falcon GT-HO Phase III

5.8L V8 (351 Cleveland) · 224 kW / 515 Nm · 4sp manual (Top Loader) · RWD
BUYRated within the over $100k band · 15 of 104 at this money
Model value
$585,000
Must gain each year to break even
+3.5%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
71/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$585,000
$444,748 lowhigh $840,463
Calibrated to a thin record
Three counted Australian results: $488,888 for the only ordinary genuine Phase III with a published price, $451,000 for a rebodied car and $1.3m for a one-of-twelve at the 2021 peak. Six further lots - provenance cars, two pass-ins and a rebodied shell - are excluded

Looking at a Falcon GT-HO for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$585,000
At about 45,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $585,000 · modelled median at five years $593,141
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $515,086 to $723,232
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($444,748 to $840,463). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

Strong within its price band. Scores 71/100, ranking 15 of 104 in the over $100k band. Scarcity is the strongest input, liquidity the weakest.
Running it costs about $13,550 a year (2.3% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $19,502 a year.
The model's five year median is $593,141, a +1.4% move, with the tenth percentile at $444,748.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin3 recorded sales
Off its peak
-55%
Value band
wide
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$19,502 a year all in, +1.4% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$585,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
8 rows on record
$1.4m$876k$332k
201620182020202220242026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $585ksolddid not sellcontext, excluded
Every row, with its price and note (8) ↓
Library value against the sold record
3 sales · median $488,888
Value $585,000
$451,000$1,300,000
2024Collecting Cars$350,000Context, excluded
REBODIED shell, before premium. Not the market for an original car, so excluded from the fitted value; shown to record the discount a non-original body carries
Feb 2023Shannons$451,000Sold
Phase III, genuine but RE-BODIED, Vermillion Fire, 73,000 miles, no reserve, lot 249 - the rebody discount is most of the gap to a straight car
Aug 2022Shannons$488,888Sold
Genuine Phase III with a published price. The only ordinary example on record, and the sale this valuation follows
Sep 2021Lloyds$1,300,000Sold
Yellow Glo, 1 of 12, plus fees. Australian production-car auction record, set at the COVID peak
Feb 2021Slattery$1,150,000Context, excluded
Electric Blue, 1 of 7 with black trim. Provenance, not the market for an ordinary car. Passed in at Shannons in 2016 at $480,000
Nov 2018Shannons$690,000Not a sale
NOT A SALE. Passed in at a $690,000-$790,000 estimate, so the market did not reach $690,000 that day
Jun 2018auction$1,030,000Context, excluded
ex-Jeff Thomson. Provenance, not the market for an ordinary car. Prior production-Falcon record
2016Shannons$480,000Not a sale
NOT A SALE. Passed in, then sold for $1.15m in 2021
3 completed Australian sales of 8 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
78/100+9
Scarcity25% of total
100/100+35
Demand durability20% of total
92/100+14
Liquidity15% of total
0/100-32
Risk resilience10% of total
40/100+6
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 71/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
78/100
Baseline80 pts
− 2.3% of value a year to run-2 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)78 pts
Scarcity25% weight
100/100
Baseline92 pts
+ Only 300 built, one of the most valuable Australian production cars ever made+24 pts
+ Genuine matching-numbers survivors a small fraction of original production+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)100 pts
Demand durability20% weight
92/100
Baseline68 pts
+ The single most recognised name in Australian muscle car history+24 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)92 pts
Liquidity15% weight
0/100
Baseline0 pts
− Essentially trades only at major auction events, 90 days on market-18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)0 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
40/100
Baseline46 pts
− Provenance and matching-numbers verification is the dominant risk factor-6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)40 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$13,550a year
Share of value per year
2.3%
Scheduled servicing$2,80021%
Tyres, annualised$1,1508%
Registration and CTP$8006%
Insurance$4,80035%
Sinking fund (failure table)$4,00030%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$608,400
Running costs × 5 years$67,750
Median exit, net of selling cost$578,641
All-in annualised over 5 years$19,502/yr
Share of value per year3.3%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
3.5%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+0.3%a year
The projection falls 3.2 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$585,000
Stamp duty$23,400
Running costs x 5 years$67,750
Selling cost at exit, 2.5% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$693,335
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine5.8L V8 (351 Cleveland)
Power / torque224 kW / 515 Nm
0-100 km/h6.4 s
Transmission4sp manual (Top Loader)
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,531 kg
Built worldwide300
Delivered to Australia300
Effective AU survivors190
Australian sales / year3
Typical days on market90 days
Launch price$5,250

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Vermilion Fire+6%
Yellow Glo+8%
Silver Fox-2%
Options
Factory documented matching-numbers provenance+25%
Original shaker and Globe wheels+6%
Full ownership chain from new+10%
Odometer sensitivity±6.5% per 10,000 km vs 45,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$593,141
+1.4% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $585,000.
Even odds it lands between $515,086 and $723,232.
$444,748 lowhigh $840,463
The shaded range is even money and 40% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 60% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$8,141 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $67,750.
Duty and expected selling costs: $37,900.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $97,510, or $19,502 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

The single most recognised name in Australian muscle car history, with only 300 built and genuine matching-numbers survivors representing a small fraction of that. Values are up about a fifth since 2016 and it remains one of the most valuable production cars ever made in Australia, though well below the 2021 top.

The case against

It essentially trades only at major auction events rather than a conventional used-car market, so liquidity is effectively nil outside those windows. Provenance and matching-numbers verification is the dominant risk factor, since replica and re-numbered cars are a well known issue in this segment. The headline million-dollar results all belong to exceptional cars; the only ordinary Phase III with a published price made $488,888 in 2022, and a car passed in at $690,000 in 2018. Provenance is doing most of the work in this market, and a replica of the same car makes about a fifth.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Provenance/matching-numbers verification is critical
Risk 2Replica and re-numbered cars a well known market issue
Risk 3Essentially illiquid outside major auction events
Provenance/matching-numbers verificationdocumentation
Restoration to concours standard$45,000
Insurance valuation/appraisal$1,200

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 3 recorded sales
Carried value
$585,000
Historical price
2016 · $480,0002026 · $585,000
Thin
Multiple recorded transactions plus an aggregate source. Treat the level as reliable.
Australian auction record

Nine lots, of which three count. Every million-dollar figure attaches to an exceptional car: $1.3m for a Yellow Glo one of twelve, $1.15m for a one of seven with black trim, $1.03m for the ex-Jeff Thomson car. The only ordinary genuine Phase III with a published price made $488,888 at Shannons in August 2022. Two further cars sold within estimates of $470,000-$520,000 in May 2016 and $900,000-$1,100,000 in November 2021 without a published figure, and one passed in at a $690,000-$790,000 estimate in November 2018. A rebodied shell made $350,000 in 2024 and a replica made $98,000 in February 2023 - the badge without the car is worth about a fifth. The valuation here follows the ordinary-car evidence rather than the record results, and a documented one-of-few in a rare colour should be valued well above it.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (1 more)
Australian clearance

Two of the four Phase III lots recorded here sold and two passed in - 2 of 4, or 50 per cent. That is computed from the lots recorded in this entry rather than from every lot ever offered in Australia, so read it as the clearance of this sample rather than of the model. It is included because a failure to sell is evidence about where the market is not, and those lots would otherwise sit in the record doing nothing.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

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This model, today$585,000
Half of sales are further out than$65,398
The report$249
263×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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