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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Ford Falcon Cobra XC Hardtop
Valuation · Ford · XC · 1978

Ford Falcon Cobra XC Hardtop

5.8L V8 (351) · 149 kW / 415 Nm · 4sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the over $100k band · 33 of 104 at this money
Model value
$200,000
Must gain each year to break even
+5.2%
The projection clears it. 14 of 244 in the library do.
CarQuant score
65/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$200,000
$205,900 lowhigh $408,995
Calibrated to a thin record
Two results: $215,000 (Feb 2026, build 241 of 400, matching numbers) and $166,500 (Lloyds 2024, ICAARS authenticated)

Looking at a Falcon Cobra for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$200,000
At about 30,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $200,000 · modelled median at five years $287,138
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $244,407 to $351,235
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($205,900 to $408,995). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 65/100, ranking 33 of 104 in the over $100k band. Demand durability is the strongest input, ownership economics the weakest.
Running it costs about $9,430 a year (4.7% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is -$5,998 a year.
The model's five year median is $287,138, a +43.6% move, with the tenth percentile at $205,900.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin2 recorded sales
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)-$5,998 a year all in, +43.6% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$200,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
2 rows on record
$222k$191k$160k
20252026
the value this record published, year by yearnow $200ksold
Every row, with its price and note (2) ↓
Library value against the sold record
2 sales · median $190,750
Value $200,000
$166,500$215,000
Feb 2026Collecting Cars$215,000Sold
SOLD. 9 Feb 2026, Strathfield NSW, 104,872km indicated and not warranted. BUILD NUMBER 241 OF 400, matching-numbers 302 Cleveland on the four-speed Top Loader, Sno White with Bold Blue stripes. Two registered on-road owners from new and garage-kept, five dated service entries 1979-83 from 8,739km, stamped booklet and workshop manual. Bathurst-specification fibreglass front spoiler replaced the vacuum-formed original early in life; air cleaner lid signed by Allan Moffat and Dick Johnson. Paint peeling on a front fender. 29 per cent above the 2024 Lloyds result
2024Lloyds$166,500Sold
ICAARS-authenticated Cobra at the classic auction - recent, third-party verified, and the only public transaction on record
2 completed Australian sales of 2 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
49/100-20
Scarcity25% of total
70/100+5
Demand durability20% of total
90/100+12
Liquidity15% of total
58/100+26
Risk resilience10% of total
64/100+30
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 65/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
49/100
Baseline55 pts
− 4.7% of value a year to run-6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)49 pts
Scarcity25% weight
70/100
Baseline42 pts
+ 400 numbered cars, the last Falcon Hardtops built+28 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)70 pts
Demand durability20% weight
90/100
Baseline54 pts
+ The most recognisable Falcon made, with the number register driving engagement+28 pts
+ Moffat 1-2 imagery attached to the body style+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)90 pts
Liquidity15% weight
58/100
Baseline22 pts
+ 60 days on market+28 pts
+ The number register keeps private sales moving+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)58 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
64/100
Baseline84 pts
− Stripes are the easiest costume in the hobby - authentication is mandatory-14 pts
− 4.9 and 5.8 cars priced as one market in listings-6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)64 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$9,430a year
Share of value per year
4.7%
Scheduled servicing$2,80030%
Tyres, annualised$1,15012%
Registration and CTP$7808%
Insurance$1,70018%
Sinking fund (failure table)$3,00032%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$208,000
Running costs × 5 years$47,150
Median exit, net of selling cost$285,138
All-in annualised over 5 years-$5,998/yr
Share of value per year-3.0%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
5.2%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+7.5%a year
The projection clears the hurdle by 2.3 points a year. On these assumptions the car covers its own costs and leaves a surplus.
Purchase$200,000
Stamp duty$8,000
Running costs x 5 years$47,150
Selling cost at exit, 1.0% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$257,727
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine5.8L V8 (351)
Power / torque149 kW / 415 Nm
0-100 km/h8 s
Transmission4sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,610 kg
Built worldwide400
Delivered to Australia400
Effective AU survivors220
Australian sales / year1
Typical days on market60 days
Launch price$11,000

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Sno White with Bold Blue stripes (every car)0%
Options
Bathurst Option Pack (1 of 30)+30%
5.8-litre car (the first 200 builds)+10%
ICAARS authentication+8%
Odometer sensitivity±1.6% per 10,000 km vs 30,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$287,138
+43.6% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $200,000.
Even odds it lands between $244,407 and $351,235.
$205,900 lowhigh $408,995
The shaded range is even money and 44% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 98% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$87,138 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $47,150.
Duty and expected selling costs: $10,000.
Net cost of five years of ownership: -$29,990, or -$5,998 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

The most recognisable Australian Ford, 400 numbered cars with a live register, and its one public transaction is recent and third-party authenticated - the cleanest single-sale record in this library.

The case against

A single sale is still a single sale, the 4.9-litre cars dilute casual pricing, and the Option Pack premium means the headline results that make news do not price the standard 170 5.8 road cars.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Replica stripes on standard Hardtops
Risk 24.9 versus 5.8 conflation in listings
Risk 3Option Pack results read as the standard market
351 rebuild$14,000
Stripe and paint originality$8,000
Structural rust$15,000

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 2 recorded sales
Carried value
$200,000
Historical price
2016 · $110,0002026 · $200,000
Thin
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
One recent authenticated sale

An ICAARS-authenticated Cobra made $166,500 at Lloyds in 2024 - a single result, but a recent one with third-party authentication attached, which is worth more than an older sale without it.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (5 more)
The car

400 numbered Hardtops in Sno White with Bold Blue stripes, built to clear the last coupe shells when Ford ended the body style, and accidentally the most recognisable Falcon ever made - number 1 sits in Ford's own collection and the 30 Bathurst Option Pack cars carry a market of their own above the standard run.

The number game runs the market

Every car wears its build number on the console, low numbers and the Option Pack carry premiums the way W1 build numbers do, and the authentication industry exists because stripes are the easiest costume in Australian classics.

A second result, and it is 29 per cent above the first

Build number 241 of 400, matching numbers, two registered owners from new, made $215,000 at Strathfield on 9 February 2026 - against $166,500 at Lloyds in 2024 for an ICAARS-authenticated car. Twenty months apart.

Two results are not a trend and the gap is not all market

The Strathfield car documents its build number, its matching-numbers engine, five dated service entries running from 8,739 kilometres in 1979, and an air cleaner lid signed by Allan Moffat and Dick Johnson. Against that it carries 104,872 kilometres - more than three times what this record expects - and peeling paint on a front fender. The 2024 car had third-party authentication and less documentation of its own history.

The value moves from $175,000 to $200,000,

Between the two results and nearer the recent one. The distance term is left alone at 1.6 per cent and it is worth saying why: at 104,872 kilometres against an expected 30,000, the twelve per cent cap binds long before the real adjustment would - so the model is already declining to price the odometer on this car, which on a 1978 homologation coupe is the right answer for the wrong reason.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

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Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$200,000
Half of sales are further out than$22,358
The report$249
90×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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