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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Subaru BRZ S
Valuation · Subaru · ZD8 · 2022-26

Subaru BRZ S

2.4L NA flat four · 174 kW / 250 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the $30k to $100k band · 51 of 94 at this money
Research estimate
$38,000
Must gain each year to break even
+12.0%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
53/100
Scored against the $30k to $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$38,000
$24,969 lowhigh $48,378
Researched, no recorded transaction
No Australian sale of any kind. The anchor is Subaru's own list price, which has risen far enough that a 2022 car sits about ten per cent below its own launch figure and a third below the current one.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.

Looking at a BRZ for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$38,000
At about 28,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.

We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.

Price history

Today $38,000 · modelled median at five years $37,961
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $31,127 to $43,440
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($24,969 to $48,378). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 53/100, ranking 51 of 94 in the $30k to $100k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $5,150 a year (13.6% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $5,660 a year.
The model's five year median is $37,961, a -0.1% move, with the tenth percentile at $24,969.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
-5%
Value band
wide
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$5,660 a year all in, -0.1% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$38,000

Recorded sales

No individual sales are logged for this vehicle.
The value is supported by the aggregate evidence noted at the top of this report, but the underlying transactions are not itemised here.

Score breakdown

Against the $30k to $100k band median
94 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
56/100+1
Scarcity25% of total
42/100-11
Demand durability20% of total
56/100-10
Liquidity15% of total
81/100+29
Risk resilience10% of total
20/100-16
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 53/100. Medians are computed live from the 94 cars currently in the $30k to $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
56/100
Baseline84 pts
− 13.6% of value a year to run-34 pts
+ Below its Australian list price+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)56 pts
Scarcity25% weight
42/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 4,125 survivors estimated in Australia+22 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)42 pts
Demand durability20% weight
56/100
Baseline48 pts
+ Australia's best-selling sports car in 2023+10 pts
− Volume has since fallen by more than half-8 pts
+ The tS is the variant holding its money+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)56 pts
Liquidity15% weight
81/100
Baseline12 pts
+ 40 days on market+44 pts
+ 550 sales a year+25 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)81 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
20/100
Baseline58 pts
− List price escalation is doing the work, not demand-10 pts
− A tracked FA24 is a $15,000 engine once warranty ends-10 pts
− No Australian transaction behind the value-18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)20 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 12,000 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$5,150a year
Share of value per year
13.6%
Scheduled servicing$1,16023%
Tyres, annualised$79015%
Registration and CTP$62012%
Insurance$1,47029%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,11022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$39,520
Running costs × 5 years$25,750
Median exit, net of selling cost$36,971
All-in annualised over 5 years$5,660/yr
Share of value per year14.9%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
12.0%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-0.0%a year
The projection falls 12.0 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$38,000
Stamp duty$1,520
Running costs x 5 years$25,750
Selling cost at exit, 2.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$67,016
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine2.4L NA flat four
Power / torque174 kW / 250 Nm
0-100 km/h6.3 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,249 kg
Built worldwideNot established
Delivered to Australia4,150
Effective AU survivors4,125
Australian sales / year550
Typical days on market40 days
Launch price$40,190

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Original paint with the front lip intact+4%
A factory metallic rather than a solid colour+3%
Resprayed after scrape or lip damage-6%
Options
tS rather than the standard S+12%
Unmodified with no track history+8%
First owner and still inside the Subaru warranty+6%
Odometer sensitivity±1.6% per 10,000 km vs 28,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$37,961
-0.1% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $38,000.
Even odds it lands between $31,127 and $43,440.
$24,969 lowhigh $48,378
The shaded range is even money and 40% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 63% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$39 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $25,750.
Duty and expected selling costs: $2,510.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $28,300, or $5,660 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

Australia's best-selling sports car in 2023 at 1,573 deliveries, ahead of the Mustang, and a 2022 S at $35,000 is only about ten per cent under its own launch price. Subaru's list has climbed to $52,206 drive-away, which keeps lifting the floor under the used ones.

The case against

Volume has fallen from 1,573 to 767 in two years and the supply squeeze that held used prices at or above list is over. The nominal flatness is list price escalation rather than demand, and in real terms these are declining.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Nominal flatness is list price escalation, not demand
Risk 2A tracked FA24 is a $15,000 engine once the warranty ends
Risk 3A pre-launch 170kW figure still circulates against a 174kW car
FA24 rod-bearing / oil-starvation failure on tracked cars, engine replacement out of warranty$15,000
Clutch and dual-mass flywheel$3,750
Front rotors and pads$1,600
Front lip and underbody scraping$1,050

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueResearched · 0 recorded sales
Carried value
$38,000
Historical price
2022 · $40,1902026 · $38,000
Researched
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
No Australian sale of any kind sits behind this figure,

So the value is anchored on list price arithmetic instead. Subaru's escalation has been extraordinary: a $38,990 car in 2022 is a $52,206 drive-away car in 2026. That means a 2022 S at $35,000 is only about ten per cent below its own launch price yet a third below what the same car costs new today, and which of those two comparisons a seller quotes decides whether the model looks flat or looks cheap. This record treats it as a mild real decline, because that is what it is.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (2 more)
The volume curve has already turned

Subaru delivered 1,573 in 2023, enough to make this Australia's best-selling sports car that year, ahead of the Mustang. By 2025 the figure was 767. The supply pressure that held used prices at or above list through the 2022 to 2023 squeeze has gone and nothing has replaced it.

The specification record is not clean either

A pre-launch figure of 170kW and 249Nm circulated widely and is still quoted at cars that are 174kW and 250Nm as delivered here. Subaru publishes no BRZ production totals, so no worldwide build number appears on this page. The tS is the resilient variant and the standard S is what this value describes. A tracked FA24 with a spun bearing is a $15,000 replacement once the warranty is gone, and warranty is the only thing standing between most of these cars and that bill.

What we will not sell you
We will not price a Subaru BRZ against an advertisement.

No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.

Read a real listing report
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Subaru BRZ S, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

Free. One address, one model, and no account.