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Valuation · Toyota · ZN6 · 2012-16
Toyota 86 GTS
2.0L NA flat four · 147 kW / 205 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the under $30k band · 22 of 46 at this money
Research estimate
$24,000
Must gain each year to break even
+12.8%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
45/100
Scored against the under $30k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Researched
No Australian transaction of any kind
$24,000
$14,407 lowhigh $28,761
Modelled estimate
No recorded Australian sale stands behind this figure. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.
Looking at a 86 for sale?
Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.
Should make, typical example
$24,000
At about 130,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.
No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.
We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.
Price history
Today $24,000 · modelled median at five years $23,378
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $18,659 to $26,209
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($14,407 to $28,761). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.
The verdict
A defensible case with reservations. Scores 45/100, ranking 22 of 46 in the under $30k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $3,450 a year (14.4% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $3,936 a year.
The model's five year median is $23,378, a -2.6% move, with the tenth percentile at $14,407.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Researched0 recorded sales
Off its peak
-20%
Value band
wide
No external evidence. A modelled estimate whose structure is more useful than its level.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$3,936 a year all in, -2.6% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity requires a decade of attrition
Negotiate from$24,000
Recorded sales
No individual sales are logged for this vehicle.
Cars of this kind trade mainly through dealers and classifieds rather than auction houses, so no verified sale record exists to publish. The value is a modelled estimate.
Published calls on this car
1 call on this model has been published and settled, and none sold, so there is nothing to grade.
Unsold2026-09-24
No sale at Arncliffe, New South Wales. Absent from the sold results by 2 October, with no high bid published, so there is nothing to grade against.
Called
$22,500
Score breakdown
Against the under $30k band median
46 cars in band · ink tick marks the medianOwnership economics30% of total
44/100+9
Scarcity25% of total
6/100-35
Demand durability20% of total
52/100-4
Liquidity15% of total
88/100+29
Risk resilience10% of total
70/100+33
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 45/100. Medians are computed live from the 46 cars currently in the under $30k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
44/100Baseline80 pts
− 14.4% of value a year to run-36 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)44 pts
Scarcity25% weight
6/100Baseline0 pts
+ 9,200 survivors, attrition slow+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)6 pts
Demand durability20% weight
52/100Baseline20 pts
+ Strong young enthusiast base+22 pts
+ First sub-$40k RWD coupe of its era+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)52 pts
Liquidity15% weight
88/100Baseline10 pts
+ 36 days on market+48 pts
+ 1,750 sales a year+30 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)88 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
70/100Baseline90 pts
− High valve spring recall exposure-10 pts
− 12% price volatility-10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)70 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.
What it costs to own · about 10,833 km a year
Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$3,450a year
Share of value per year
14.4%
Scheduled servicing$68020%
Tyres, annualised$62018%
Registration and CTP$75022%
Insurance$88026%
Sinking fund (failure table)$52015%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$24,960
Running costs × 5 years$17,250
Median exit, net of selling cost$22,528
All-in annualised over 5 years$3,936/yr
Share of value per year16.4%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
12.8%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-0.5%a year
The projection falls 13.3 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$24,000
Stamp duty$960
Running costs x 5 years$17,250
Selling cost at exit, 3.5% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$43,760
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.
Specification
Engine2.0L NA flat four
Power / torque147 kW / 205 Nm
0-100 km/h7.6 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,258 kg
Built worldwide200,000
Delivered to Australia17,000
Effective AU survivors9,200
Australian sales / year1,750
Typical days on market36 days
Launch price$35,990
What moves the price on this model
Colour hierarchy
Orange metallic+4%
White+2%
Silver-2%
Options
TRD aero and exhaust (dealer-fit, receipts)+3%
Performance pack (Brembo, Sachs)+4%
Numbered special editions (Blackline, Apollo)+2%
Odometer sensitivity±1.1% per 10,000 km vs 130,000 km
Applied on top of these
Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.
Projected value in five years
Projected value at five years
$23,378
-2.6% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $24,000.
Even odds it lands between $18,659 and $26,209.
$14,407 lowhigh $28,761
The shaded range is even money and 40% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 70% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$622 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $17,250.
Duty and expected selling costs: $1,810.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $19,680, or $3,936 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.
The case for and against
The case for
Cheapest honest RWD manual coupe on the market. Values have been flat for four years, which caps downside.
The case against
9,200 survivors and steady supply from fleet turnover. No scarcity case inside ten years.
Known faults and risks
Risk 1Valve spring recall paperwork
Risk 2Thrashed examples common
Risk 3GR86 supply suppresses values
Valve spring recall (verify done)documentation
Rear main seal weep$900
Similar cars, and what they cost to run
What we will not sell you
We will not price a Toyota 86 against an advertisement.
No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.
One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Toyota 86 GTS, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.
Free. One address, one model, and no account.