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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Subaru BRZ
Valuation · Subaru · ZC6 · 2012-20

Subaru BRZ

2.0L NA flat four · 147 kW / 205 Nm · 6sp manual · RWD
BUYRated within the under $30k band · 8 of 46 at this money
Model value
$24,500
Must gain each year to break even
+14.3%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
51/100
Scored against the under $30k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$24,500
$16,809 lowhigh $30,582
Calibrated to a thin record
One Australian result: $24,250 in March 2026, a 2019 tS automatic at 65,166km, which is two specification steps from the car this record describes. These prices reach this library through a third-party compiler rather than from the selling house: Collecting Cars publishes the car, the date, the suburb, the odometer and the condition report, and puts the final figure behind a login. They are carried as evidence on that basis and the provenance is stated here so it can be weighed.
Measured across this library, a value resting on a single Australian result runs high about six times in ten, by a median of five per cent.

Looking at a BRZ for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$24,500
At about 126,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $24,500 · modelled median at five years $24,522
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $20,465 to $27,710
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($16,809 to $30,582). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

Strong within its price band. Scores 51/100, ranking 8 of 46 in the under $30k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $4,200 a year (17.1% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $4,520 a year.
The model's five year median is $24,522, a +0.1% move, with the tenth percentile at $16,809.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin1 recorded sale
Off its peak
-36%
Value band
wide
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$4,520 a year all in, +0.1% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$24,500

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
1 row on record
Every row, with its price and note (1) ↓
Mar 2026AutoMarkets$24,250Sold
SOLD. D 30 Mar 2026, 65,166km. 2019 BRZ tS, automatic.; the originating auction house is not named and the source listing could not be located, so attribution is incomplete. The only published Australian auction result found for a ZC6.
1 completed Australian sale of 1 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the under $30k band median
46 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
48/100+13
Scarcity25% of total
44/100+3
Demand durability20% of total
52/100-4
Liquidity15% of total
79/100+20
Risk resilience10% of total
29/100-8
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 51/100. Medians are computed live from the 46 cars currently in the under $30k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
48/100
Baseline84 pts
− 17.1% of value a year to run-42 pts
+ Below its Australian list price+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)48 pts
Scarcity25% weight
44/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 2,850 survivors estimated in Australia+24 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)44 pts
Demand durability20% weight
52/100
Baseline46 pts
+ The cheapest way into a modern rear-drive manual coupe+10 pts
− The 86 outsold it eight to one and still sets the price-12 pts
+ Low-kilometre unmodified manuals are genuinely thin+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)52 pts
Liquidity15% weight
79/100
Baseline12 pts
+ 45 days on market+42 pts
+ 600 sales a year+25 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)79 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
29/100
Baseline56 pts
− The pool is heavily modified and heavily driven-12 pts
− Valve spring recall exposure on 2012-13 cars-8 pts
− Thin transaction record-7 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)29 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 12,000 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$4,200a year
Share of value per year
17.1%
Scheduled servicing$95023%
Tyres, annualised$64015%
Registration and CTP$50012%
Insurance$1,20029%
Sinking fund (failure table)$91022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$25,480
Running costs × 5 years$21,000
Median exit, net of selling cost$23,882
All-in annualised over 5 years$4,520/yr
Share of value per year18.4%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
14.3%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+0.0%a year
The projection falls 14.2 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$24,500
Stamp duty$980
Running costs x 5 years$21,000
Selling cost at exit, 2.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$47,727
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine2.0L NA flat four
Power / torque147 kW / 205 Nm
0-100 km/h7.6 s
Transmission6sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,256 kg
Built worldwideNot established
Delivered to Australia3,150
Effective AU survivors2,850
Australian sales / year600
Typical days on market45 days
Launch price$37,150

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Original paint, unresprayed+5%
A factory colour rather than a wrap+3%
Repainted or colour-changed-6%
Options
A 2018-19 tS rather than a standard car+22%
Manual with the 152kW facelift engine+12%
Standard throughout, with the recall work documented+15%
Odometer sensitivity±1.1% per 10,000 km vs 126,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$24,522
+0.1% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $24,500.
Even odds it lands between $20,465 and $27,710.
$16,809 lowhigh $30,582
The shaded range is even money and 35% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 63% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$22 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $21,000.
Duty and expected selling costs: $1,620.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $22,600, or $4,520 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

The cheapest way into a modern rear-drive manual coupe, bottomed around 2023 to 2024, with low-kilometre unmodified cars beginning to firm. A 2018-19 tS sits $5,000 to $6,000 above a standard car and is the version with a case behind it.

The case against

The pool is heavily modified and heavily driven, and asking prices span roughly $15,000 to $40,000 for the same nominal car. The only Australian auction figure found for the whole generation is an automatic tS, which is a fair measure of how thin the record is.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Valve spring recall fallout on 2012-13 cars
Risk 2Heavily modified cars are the norm rather than the exception
Risk 3The Australian delivery figure is an estimate, not a published number
Valve-spring recall fallout on 2012-13 cars, engine replacement if the failure occurs$11,000
Clutch and dual-mass flywheel$3,400
Suspension and bush refresh past 100,000km - rear subframe, diff bushes, steering rack$2,750
Returning a modified car to stock tyres and alignment$2,000

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 1 recorded sale
Carried value
$24,500
Historical price
2016 · $38,0002026 · $24,500
Thin
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
One Australian auction figure exists and it is the wrong car

The one Australian result is a March 2026 sale at $24,250 on a 2019 tS with 65,166km - an automatic, and a tS, which is two specification steps from the standard manual this record describes. It is carried because it is the only local money there is, and the specification gap is stated because it flatters the standard car. It is also the only published Australian auction result found for the entire generation.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (2 more)
The dispersion is the real story

This pool is heavily modified and heavily driven, and the market runs from about $15,000 to about $40,000 on the same nominal car. Almost none of that spread is year. It is modification, distance and whether the clutch, bushes and subframe work is ahead of the car or behind it, and putting a modified example back on standard tyres and alignment is $2,000 before anything mechanical is touched.

What Australia received is uncertain

Subaru's first-year allocation was only 201 cars because the production split ran eight to one in the Toyota 86's favour, and no whole-of-generation Australian delivery total was ever published, so the figure here is an estimate and a real evidence gap. The $37,150 launch price was quoted as drive-away rather than recommended retail, which flatters every depreciation sum built on it. Manual cars gained 152kW and 212Nm at the 2017 facelift.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Subaru BRZ is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$24,500
Half of sales are further out than$2,739
The report$249
11×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Subaru BRZ, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

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BRZ for sale?Priced by a person, $249