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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Lexus LC 500
Valuation · Lexus · URZ100 · 2017-26

Lexus LC 500

5.0L NA V8 (2UR-GSE) · 351 kW / 540 Nm · 10sp automatic · RWD
AVOIDRated within the over $100k band · 85 of 104 at this money
Research estimate
$122,000
Must gain each year to break even
+6.8%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
55/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Asks only
Advertisements only; an ask is not a transaction
$122,000
$76,407 lowhigh $144,202
Asking prices only, no recorded sale
No auction record. A researched estimate on a car still depreciating
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.

Looking at an LC 500 for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$122,000
At about 160,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.

We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.

Price history

Today $122,000 · modelled median at five years $114,372
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $94,402 to $130,063
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($76,407 to $144,202). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

The numbers argue against it. Scores 55/100, ranking 85 of 104 in the over $100k band. Risk resilience is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $7,950 a year (6.5% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $10,892 a year.
The model's five year median is $114,372, a -6.3% move, with the tenth percentile at $76,407.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Asks only0 recorded sales
Off its peak
-30%
Value band
wide
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$10,892 a year all in, -6.3% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$122,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
2 rows on record
$219k$165k$110k
20262027
the value this record published, year by yearnow $122kasking
Every row, with its price and note (2) ↓
2026ASK$207,333Asking
ASKING. 2023 LC500 coupe, 1,100km, dealer. A listing, not a transaction
2026ASK$195,000Asking
ASKING. 2023 LC500 convertible, 3,500km, dealer NSW. A listing, not a transaction
0 completed Australian sales of 2 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
67/100-2
Scarcity25% of total
28/100-37
Demand durability20% of total
68/100-10
Liquidity15% of total
50/100+18
Risk resilience10% of total
72/100+38
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 55/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
67/100
Baseline78 pts
− 6.5% of value a year to run-11 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)67 pts
Scarcity25% weight
28/100
Baseline26 pts
− Roughly 900 Australian deliveries across a nine-year run-8 pts
+ Naturally aspirated V8 grand tourers are finished, which will matter eventually+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)28 pts
Demand durability20% weight
68/100
Baseline58 pts
+ The last naturally aspirated V8 Lexus, and one of the last of any marque+18 pts
− Grand tourers draw a smaller enthusiast following than sports cars-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)68 pts
Liquidity15% weight
50/100
Baseline44 pts
+ Forty-five sales a year and 72 days on market+12 pts
− No auction record, so no public price discovery-6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)50 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
72/100
Baseline74 pts
+ Toyota reliability and a naturally aspirated engine make this the lowest mechanical risk in the library+6 pts
− Still depreciating-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)72 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 12,000 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$7,950a year
Share of value per year
6.5%
Scheduled servicing$1,90024%
Tyres, annualised$1,40018%
Registration and CTP$85011%
Insurance$2,20028%
Sinking fund (failure table)$1,60020%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$126,880
Running costs × 5 years$39,750
Median exit, net of selling cost$112,172
All-in annualised over 5 years$10,892/yr
Share of value per year8.9%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
6.8%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-1.3%a year
The projection falls 8.1 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$122,000
Stamp duty$4,880
Running costs x 5 years$39,750
Selling cost at exit, 1.8% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$169,690
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine5.0L NA V8 (2UR-GSE)
Power / torque351 kW / 540 Nm
0-100 km/h4.7 s
Transmission10sp automatic
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,935 kg
Built worldwide30,000
Delivered to Australia900
Effective AU survivors850
Australian sales / year45
Typical days on market72 days
Launch price$190,000

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Structural Blue+12%
Naples Yellow+6%
White-2%
Options
Enhancement Pack 2 (LSD, rear steer)+4%
21-inch forged wheels+1%
Mark Levinson audio+1%
Odometer sensitivity±0.9% per 10,000 km vs 160,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$114,372
-6.3% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $122,000.
Even odds it lands between $94,402 and $130,063.
$76,407 lowhigh $144,202
The shaded range is even money and 38% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 76% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$7,628 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $39,750.
Duty and expected selling costs: $7,080.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $54,460, or $10,892 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

A naturally aspirated 5.0-litre V8 in a car built to Toyota standards, with 160,000km of expected life and the lowest mechanical risk in this library. Production ended in 2026 and nothing will replace the formula. If any modern car here becomes a collectible from a standing start, this is the candidate.

The case against

Roughly 900 came to Australia across nine years, so it is not rare and will not be. The model projects continued depreciation and there is no auction evidence in any market. Grand tourers attract fewer collectors than sports cars, and buying this as an investment means paying today for a scarcity that does not yet exist.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Still depreciating with no evidence the floor has been reached
Risk 2High volume across a long production run
Risk 3Grand tourer demand is narrower than sports car demand
Annual service$1,900
Tyre set$1,400
Air suspension component$3,800

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueAsks only · 0 recorded sales
Carried value
$122,000
Historical price
2018 · $175,0002026 · $122,000
Asks only
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
No auction record

In the Australian or international data compiled for this library. The LC 500 is a recent car still trading through dealers, so the absence says nothing about demand.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (3 more)
This is the clearest future-collectible case in the library,

And also the least proven. The 2UR-GSE is a naturally aspirated 5.0-litre V8 in a large grand tourer, a combination no manufacturer will build again, and Lexus ended production in 2026. Every argument for it is forward-looking.

What is established

The Australian launch price was around $190,000 and roughly 900 were delivered here across the run. That volume is the problem for the investment case - it is not a rare car, and it was built for nine years.

What is not established

The value carried here is a researched estimate for a 2017-18 example and should be read as indicative. The model projects continued depreciation, because a nine-year production run of a comfortable grand tourer is not a scarcity story yet. The car it most resembles in this library is the 992 Turbo S: excellent, usable, high volume, and still falling.

What we will not sell you
We will not price a Lexus LC 500 against an advertisement.

No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.

Read a real listing report
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Lexus LC 500, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

Free. One address, one model, and no account.