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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Porsche 911 Carrera S
Valuation · Porsche · 991.1 · 2012-15

Porsche 911 Carrera S

3.8L NA flat six · 294 kW / 440 Nm · 7sp manual · RWD
CONSIDERRated within the over $100k band · 70 of 104 at this money
Model value
$150,000
Must gain each year to break even
+7.4%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
58/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$150,000
$96,004 lowhigh $134,166
Calibrated to a thin record
One Australian auction result: $155,500 in September 2026 for a 2012-complied PDK car at 30,461km, within a few hundred dollars of this value at that distance. Two August 2026 asking prices at $174,888 and $160,000, and one undated Lorbek retail figure of $134,990.
Measured across this library, a value resting on a single Australian result runs high about six times in ten, by a median of five per cent.

Looking at a 911 for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$150,000
At about 45,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $150,000 · modelled median at five years $116,230
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $105,591 to $125,664
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($96,004 to $134,166). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

A defensible case with reservations. Scores 58/100, ranking 70 of 104 in the over $100k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $10,630 a year (7.1% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $19,364 a year.
The model's five year median is $116,230, a -22.5% move, with the tenth percentile at $96,004.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin1 recorded sale
Off its peak
-57%
Value band
tight
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$19,364 a year all in, -22.5% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$150,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
5 rows on record
$156k$153k$149k
2027
the value this record published, year by yearnow $150ksoldaskingcontext, excluded3 rows sit off this scale. Open the list below to see them.1 row is undated and is not plotted
Every row, with its price and note (5) ↓
Sep 2026Collecting Cars$155,500Sold
SOLD. 24 Sep 2026, Torrens ACT, 30,461km believed genuine. 2011 build complied 2012, Australian-delivered, seven-speed PDK, Platinum Silver over black, Porsche Centre Canberra services Jul 2023, Nov 2024 and Nov 2025, factory sports exhaust, two keys
Sep 2026Collecting Cars$126,969Context, excluded
SOLD. 3 Sep 2026, Elizabeth Bay NSW, 82,578km. 2015 Carrera BLACK EDITION, the 3.4 base car and not the Carrera S this record describes, PDK, Jet Black, Australian-delivered. Context only
Aug 2026Autotrader Australia$174,888Asking
ASKING. 2014 Carrera S Cabriolet, 39,422km, PDK, Albion QLD. Third-party classifieds listing, not a sale.
Aug 2026Autotrader Australia$160,000Asking
ASKING. 2014 Carrera S coupe, 103,161km, PDK, Thornleigh NSW. Third-party classifieds listing, not a sale.
UndatedLorbek Luxury Cars$134,990Context, excluded
SOLD - dealer retail, no date published. 2012 991 Carrera S, 166,862km, PDK, published on Lorbek's own recent-sales page. Not a hammer price. No date is published against this figure and it is excluded from this record, which is a dated series; it is shown because it is real published money.
1 completed Australian sale of 5 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
72/100+3
Scarcity25% of total
48/100-17
Demand durability20% of total
60/100-18
Liquidity15% of total
73/100+41
Risk resilience10% of total
16/100-18
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 58/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
72/100
Baseline84 pts
− 7.1% of value a year to run-18 pts
+ Below its Australian list price+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)72 pts
Scarcity25% weight
48/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 1,125 survivors estimated in Australia+28 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)48 pts
Demand durability20% weight
60/100
Baseline52 pts
+ The last naturally aspirated 911 Carrera+14 pts
+ By far the most liquid car in this tranche+8 pts
− An estimated 1,200 Australian deliveries is not scarcity-14 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)60 pts
Liquidity15% weight
73/100
Baseline12 pts
+ 45 days on market+42 pts
+ 135 sales a year+19 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)73 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
16/100
Baseline60 pts
− Still on a depreciation curve rather than an appreciation one-14 pts
− Bore-scoring anxiety is the market's main lever-10 pts
− No published Australian result of any kind-8 pts
− Asking prices only, and an ask is not a sale-12 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)16 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 3,600 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$10,630a year
Share of value per year
7.1%
Scheduled servicing$2,39022%
Tyres, annualised$1,63015%
Registration and CTP$1,28012%
Insurance$3,03029%
Sinking fund (failure table)$2,30022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$156,000
Running costs × 5 years$53,150
Median exit, net of selling cost$112,330
All-in annualised over 5 years$19,364/yr
Share of value per year12.9%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
7.4%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-5.0%a year
The projection falls 12.4 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$150,000
Stamp duty$6,000
Running costs x 5 years$53,150
Selling cost at exit, 2.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$214,733
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine3.8L NA flat six
Power / torque294 kW / 440 Nm
0-100 km/h4.5 s
Transmission7sp manual
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,415 kg
Built worldwideNot established
Delivered to Australia1,200
Effective AU survivors1,125
Australian sales / year135
Typical days on market45 days
Launch price$263,100

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Original paint, unresprayed+5%
A factory colour with the original interior+2%
Resprayed after panel damage-8%
Options
Seven-speed manual rather than PDK+18%
A clean borescope report at inspection+10%
Documented Porsche service history+8%
Odometer sensitivity±1.9% per 10,000 km vs 45,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$116,230
-22.5% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $150,000.
Even odds it lands between $105,591 and $125,664.
$96,004 lowhigh $134,166
The shaded range is even money and 19% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 95% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$33,770 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $53,150.
Duty and expected selling costs: $9,900.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $96,820, or $19,364 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

It is the last naturally aspirated 911 Carrera, and the money has been flat to firming since 2022 and 2023 for that reason alone. The seven-speed manual is the collector variant and already carries $15,000 to $30,000 over an equivalent PDK.

The case against

This is a plentiful late-model used 911 still primarily on a depreciation curve from a $263,100 launch price, with an estimated 1,200 Australian deliveries behind it. Every published local number is an asking price or a dealer retail figure, the lowest being $134,990 for a 2012 car at 166,862km.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Still depreciating; this record is a reference point, not a recommendation
Risk 2Bore scoring on the 9A1 3.8 is rare but the engine is $55,000
Risk 3PDK mechatronic unit and clutch pack at high distance
Engine replacement after bore scoring on the 9A1 3.8 - much rarer than on the 996/997 M97 but not zero (borescope inspection 400-900)$55,000
PCCB set if fitted, though most Australian cars are steel$45,000
PDK mechatronic unit and clutch pack at high km$11,500
PASM dampers at 120,000km or more$5,500
Rear main seal and sump gasket seepage$3,750
Coolant pipes, water pump and thermostat$3,500

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 1 recorded sale
Carried value
$150,000
Historical price
2016 · $352,5002026 · $150,000
Thin
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
September 2026, the first Australian result, and it lands on the value

A 2011-built Carrera S on PDK, complied in 2012, made $155,500 at Torrens, Australian Capital Territory, on 24 September: Platinum Silver over black, 30,461 kilometres believed genuine, Australian-delivered, serviced by Porsche Centre Canberra in 2023, 2024 and 2025, with the sports exhaust. Carried on this record's curve from the 45,000 kilometres it expects to that car's 30,461, the value returns $155,100, four hundred dollars from the hammer.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (5 more)
One result is a check and not a fit,

And the value does not move for it. A 2015 base Carrera Black Edition on PDK at 82,578 kilometres made $126,969 at Elizabeth Bay three weeks earlier; it is the 3.4 rather than the S this record describes and is kept as context.

This record is a reference point, not a recommendation

The 991.1 Carrera S is here because Australians trade it in volume - an estimated 1,200 delivered new from 2012 at $263,100 before on-roads, about 1,125 still here, roughly 135 changing hands a year, by far the most liquid car in this tranche - and a library with no point on that curve is missing an anchor. It is not offered as a collectable. The car is still primarily on a depreciation curve rather than an appreciation one, and the research explicitly grades it as one that should not carry a collector recommendation.

What holds it up is one fact

It is the last naturally aspirated 911 Carrera, and the money has gone flat to firming since 2022 and 2023 on that alone. The seven-speed manual is the variant that will move first, at $15,000 to $30,000 over an equivalent PDK.

When this record was written there was no Australian result at all

The three published local numbers are a $174,888 ask on a 2014 Cabriolet at 39,422km, a $160,000 ask on a 2014 coupe at 103,161km, and an undated Lorbek retail figure of $134,990 on a 2012 car at 166,862km. Two asks and a dealer price with no date.

The inspection that matters

Is a borescope at $400 to $900: bore scoring on the 9A1 3.8 is far rarer than on the 996 and 997 M97 engines but it is not zero, and a replacement engine is $55,000, so the anxiety prices this car more heavily than the failure rate does.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Porsche 911 Carrera S is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$150,000
Half of sales are further out than$16,769
The report$249
67×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Porsche 911 Carrera S, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

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