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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Ferrari California
Valuation · Ferrari · F149 · 2009-14

Ferrari California

4.3L NA V8 · 338 kW / 485 Nm · 7sp dual-clutch · RWD
AVOIDRated within the over $100k band · 103 of 104 at this money
Model value
$150,000
Must gain each year to break even
+6.9%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
48/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$150,000
$98,290 lowhigh $181,955
Calibrated to a thin record
Two Australian results a month apart, $149,000 in August 2026 and $152,000 in September 2026, normalising to $148,500 and $153,300 against a carried value lifted to $150,000. 97 international lots, 67% clearing but only 48% since 2024

Looking at a California for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$150,000
At about 45,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $150,000 · modelled median at five years $148,698
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $122,183 to $166,191
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($98,290 to $181,955). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

The numbers argue against it. Scores 48/100, ranking 103 of 104 in the over $100k band. Ownership economics is the strongest input, scarcity the weakest.
Running it costs about $9,850 a year (6.6% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $11,890 a year.
The model's five year median is $148,698, a -0.9% move, with the tenth percentile at $98,290.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin2 recorded sales
Off its peak
-9%
Value band
wide
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$11,890 a year all in, -0.9% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$150,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
3 rows on record
$153k$150k$147k
20262027
the value this record published, year by yearnow $150kwhat the model expects across 42k–51k kmsoldcontext, excluded1 row sits off this scale. Open the list below to see them.
Every row, with its price and note (3) ↓
Library value against the sold record
2 sales · median $150,500
Value $150,000
$149,000$152,000
Sep 2026Collecting Cars$152,000Sold
SOLD. 7 Sep 2026, Fyshwick ACT, 51,082km. 2012 California 30, AUSTRALIAN-DELIVERED, Bianco over Nero with contrast stitching and carbon inlays, 20-inch wheels, carbon-ceramic brakes with yellow callipers, carbon steering wheel with LED shift lights, heated electric memory seats, reversing camera. Nine dated Ferrari services from 6,455km in June 2013 to 49,382km in August 2025. Balance of a Ferrari Power15 transferable powertrain warranty to August 2026. Dashboard leather professionally repaired; minor marks and creases noted. PPSR and NEVDIS clear. SECOND COUNTED AUSTRALIAN RESULT IN A MONTH and the pair is tight: normalised for distance this is $153,300 against $148,500 for the Wollongong car.
Aug 2026Collecting Cars$149,000Sold
SOLD. 12 Aug 2026, Wollongong NSW, 42,400km indicated and believed genuine, 2011 build. Rosso Corsa over tan, carbon-ceramics, four dated Ferrari Adelaide services from 29,869km in 2015, last serviced Dec 2021 at 41,158km. Roadworthy Apr 2025. The first Australian transaction on this record
May 2026Collecting Cars$219,500Context, excluded
SOLD but excluded from this record. 19 May 2026, Broadbeach QLD, 33,500km, 2016 CALIFORNIA T with the Handling Speciale package - the twin-turbo F149M, a different variant from the naturally aspirated F149 this record describes. Australian-delivered, two owners, major service Nov 2025 at 31,210km by Ferrari Gold Coast. Roughly 60 per cent above the naturally aspirated car
2 completed Australian sales of 3 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Published calls on this car

1 call on this model has been published and settled, and graded against what the car actually made.

Line ball2026-08-31
Sold $152,000 at Fyshwick, Australian Capital Territory, verified. The call was 4.6 per cent low, a line ball, and the hammer landed exactly on the top of the published band.
Called
$145,000
made $152,000 (+4.6%)

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
62/100-7
Scarcity25% of total
37/100-28
Demand durability20% of total
42/100-36
Liquidity15% of total
42/100+10
Risk resilience10% of total
54/100+20
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 48/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
62/100
Baseline80 pts
− 6.6% of value a year to run-18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)62 pts
Scarcity25% weight
37/100
Baseline30 pts
+ 262 registered in Australia, entry-level Ferrari GT numbers relatively high+7 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)37 pts
Demand durability20% weight
42/100
Baseline34 pts
+ Regarded as a comfortable grand tourer rather than a driver's Ferrari+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)42 pts
Liquidity15% weight
42/100
Baseline36 pts
+ Active entry-level Ferrari market, 48 days on market+14 pts
− International clearance has fallen to 48% since 2024, the sharpest recent drop of any Ferrari measured here-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)42 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
54/100
Baseline48 pts
+ Well proven V8 and dual-clutch, few systemic issues+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)54 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 3,103 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$9,850a year
Share of value per year
6.6%
Scheduled servicing$2,90029%
Tyres, annualised$1,55016%
Registration and CTP$8008%
Insurance$2,40024%
Sinking fund (failure table)$2,20022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$156,000
Running costs × 5 years$49,250
Median exit, net of selling cost$145,798
All-in annualised over 5 years$11,890/yr
Share of value per year7.9%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
6.9%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-0.2%a year
The projection falls 7.1 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$150,000
Stamp duty$6,000
Running costs x 5 years$49,250
Selling cost at exit, 1.9% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$209,296
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine4.3L NA V8
Power / torque338 kW / 485 Nm
0-100 km/h3.9 s
Transmission7sp dual-clutch
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,735 kg
Built worldwide9,000
Delivered to Australia380
Effective AU survivors262
Australian sales / year24
Typical days on market48 days
Launch price$430,000

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Grigio Silverstone+3%
Rosso Corsa+4%
Nero-1%
Options
Handling Speciale package (HS)+6%
Daytona seats+2%
MagneRide+1%
Odometer sensitivity±1.4% per 10,000 km vs 45,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$148,698
-0.9% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $150,000.
Even odds it lands between $122,183 and $166,191.
$98,290 lowhigh $181,955
The shaded range is even money and 36% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 65% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$1,302 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $49,250.
Duty and expected selling costs: $8,900.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $59,450, or $11,890 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

The most attainable current-production-era Ferrari with a comfortable, usable grand-touring character and a well proven V8 and dual-clutch drivetrain. It sells reasonably well at 48 days on market as an entry point for buyers wanting the badge without gated-manual scarcity pricing.

The case against

Values have declined steadily since 2016 rather than appreciating, reflecting its reputation as a comfortable GT rather than a genuine driver's Ferrari. Folding hardtop mechanism servicing adds cost above a standard Ferrari coupe. Fewer than half the international lots offered since 2024 have sold, and the American median has fallen from US$132,000 in 2022 to about US$100,650 in 2025. The Australian record is one transaction deep and it normalises to $137,900, so the value is confirmed rather than measured.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Folding hardtop mechanism wear
Risk 2Values still depreciating rather than appreciating
Risk 3Specialist Ferrari servicing network
Hardtop mechanism service$2,800
Dual-clutch service$2,200
Brake rotor/pad set$2,400

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 2 recorded sales
Carried value
$150,000
Historical price
2016 · $165,0002026 · $150,000
Thin
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
The first Australian transaction, and it lands almost exactly where this record already was

$149,000 at Wollongong NSW on 12 August 2026: a 2011 car, 42,400 kilometres indicated and believed genuine, Rosso Corsa over tan, carbon-ceramic brakes, four dated Ferrari Adelaide services from 29,869 kilometres in 2015. At 42,400 kilometres against the 100,000 this record expected the adjustment is plus 8.1 per cent, so it normalises to about $137,900 and the value moves $145,000 to $138,000 - a five per cent correction, the smallest in this batch.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (3 more)
Expected distance was the real error

100,000 kilometres on a car that turned up at 42,400. It is now 45,000, and with that change the sale sits at expectation and needs almost no adjustment at all.

A California T is not this car and is recorded below as excluded

$219,500 at Broadbeach QLD on 19 May 2026 for a 2016 car with the HANDLING SPECIALE package, 33,500 kilometres, Australian-delivered - the twin-turbo F149M, a different model from the naturally aspirated F149 this record describes, and worth roughly 60 per cent more.

A California T record should be cut;

Until it is, that result is the only Australian figure this library holds for the model and it is sitting in the wrong entry doing nothing.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

Send the link. A person reads the advertisement and its photographs and sends back what that Ferrari California is worth, what to offer and when to walk away, with five years of costs at the distance you drive.

Read a real listing report

The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$150,000
Half of sales are further out than$16,769
The report$249
67×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
Watch this model
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One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a Ferrari California, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

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California for sale?Priced by a person, $249