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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a BMW M4 Competition
Valuation · BMW · G82 · 2021-26

BMW M4 Competition

3.0L twin-turbo inline six · 375 kW / 650 Nm · 8sp torque converter automatic · RWD
AVOIDRated within the over $100k band · 102 of 104 at this money
Research estimate
$140,000
Must gain each year to break even
+7.7%
The projection does not clear it, and nor does most of the library.
CarQuant score
49/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Asks only
Advertisements only; an ask is not a transaction
$140,000
$74,838 lowhigh $120,218
Asking prices only, no recorded sale
No Australian sale of any kind. Live carsales asks run $125,900 to $185,000, a guide covers $119,500 to $152,500 on a 2022 car, and a new one is $204,138 drive-away.
Measured across this library, a value with no Australian result behind it runs high about seven times in ten, by a median of ten per cent. Read this one as a ceiling rather than a midpoint.

Looking at an M4 for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$140,000
At about 25,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

No Australian sale stands behind this value, so treat the figure as indicative.

We will not sell a report on this car. The check above stays free.

Price history

Today $140,000 · modelled median at five years $102,747
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $88,067 to $111,937
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($74,838 to $120,218). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

The numbers argue against it. Scores 49/100, ranking 102 of 104 in the over $100k band. Liquidity is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $10,310 a year (7.4% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is $19,609 a year.
The model's five year median is $102,747, a -26.6% move, with the tenth percentile at $74,838.
Value is research, not a measurement. Treat the level as indicative and the structure as the analysis.
Evidence
Asks only0 recorded sales
Off its peak
-57%
Value band
tight
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)$19,609 a year all in, -26.6% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$140,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
3 rows on record
$214k$170k$126k
2027
the value this record published, year by yearnow $140kasking
Every row, with its price and note (3) ↓
Aug 2026CarExpert$204,138Asking
ASKING. New M4 Competition drive-away price as configured for a Sydney postcode, including delivery, registration, plates and taxes. A new-car price, not a used transaction.
Aug 2026carsales$155,450Asking
ASKING. Live retail asking prices for used G82 Competitions spanning A$125,900-A$185,000 at research date. Asking, not transacted.
Aug 2026carsales research guide$136,000Asking
ASKING. Indicative used range for a 2022 G82 Competition of A$119,500-A$152,500. A listing-derived guide figure, not a transaction; read at research date.
0 completed Australian sales of 3 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
66/100-3
Scarcity25% of total
46/100-19
Demand durability20% of total
28/100-50
Liquidity15% of total
78/100+46
Risk resilience10% of total
2/100-32
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 49/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
66/100
Baseline84 pts
− 7.4% of value a year to run-18 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)66 pts
Scarcity25% weight
46/100
Baseline20 pts
+ 2,000 survivors estimated in Australia+26 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)46 pts
Demand durability20% weight
28/100
Baseline42 pts
+ 375kW and 650Nm, and it is genuinely quick+8 pts
− Current production, still in showrooms at $204,138 drive-away-14 pts
− Around two thousand in the country with 250 changing hands a year-8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)28 pts
Liquidity15% weight
78/100
Baseline12 pts
+ 40 days on market+44 pts
+ 250 sales a year+22 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)78 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
2/100
Baseline44 pts
− Still depreciating: a 2021 car is off 25 to 35 per cent from new-14 pts
− A full set of carbon ceramic discs is $25,000-10 pts
− No Australian auction result exists for the model-6 pts
− Asking prices only, and an ask is not a sale-12 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)2 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 10,000 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$10,310a year
Share of value per year
7.4%
Scheduled servicing$2,32023%
Tyres, annualised$1,58015%
Registration and CTP$1,24012%
Insurance$2,94029%
Sinking fund (failure table)$2,23022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$145,600
Running costs × 5 years$51,550
Median exit, net of selling cost$99,107
All-in annualised over 5 years$19,609/yr
Share of value per year14.0%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
7.7%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
-6.0%a year
The projection falls 13.7 points a year short of the hurdle. On these assumptions this car is a cost, not an asset, which can be an entirely rational thing to buy but should be bought knowing it.
Purchase$140,000
Stamp duty$5,600
Running costs x 5 years$51,550
Selling cost at exit, 2.6% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$202,413
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine3.0L twin-turbo inline six
Power / torque375 kW / 650 Nm
0-100 km/h3.9 s
Transmission8sp torque converter automatic
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,700 kg
Built worldwideNot established
Delivered to AustraliaNot established
Effective AU survivors2,000
Australian sales / year250
Typical days on market40 days
Launch priceNot established

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Original paint throughout, with no repair on a car this young+6%
A BMW Individual colour ordered new and documented+5%
Repainted panels, or a wrap concealing them-9%
Options
M xDrive rather than rear drive, which is the volume seller here+12%
Carbon bucket seats with unworn driver's-side bolsters+10%
Remaining factory warranty and a complete BMW service record+8%
Odometer sensitivity±1.8% per 10,000 km vs 25,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$102,747
-26.6% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $140,000.
Even odds it lands between $88,067 and $111,937.
$74,838 lowhigh $120,218
The shaded range is even money and 27% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A weaker five year outlook than 100% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: -$37,253 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $51,550.
Duty and expected selling costs: $9,240.
Net cost of five years of ownership: $98,045, or $19,609 a year.
The projected value fall is added to the running cost. Depreciation is the larger number here.

The case for and against

The case for

375kW, 650Nm and 3.9 seconds to 100km/h for asking prices from $125,900, against $204,138 for a new one, so the steepest depreciation has already been taken by somebody else. The curve is flattening rather than still falling hard.

The case against

This is current production still depreciating through the franchised dealer network, off roughly 25 to 35 per cent from new on a 2021 car, and there is no Australian auction result of any kind behind the value. The used pool is 375kW pre-LCI stock while the showroom car now makes 390kW.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1Current production and still depreciating, so this is used performance stock
Risk 2Carbon ceramic discs cost $25,000 for a full set
Risk 3Pre-LCI 375kW used cars sit against a 390kW post-LCI showroom car
Carbon ceramic disc replacement, full set, if fitted$25,000
Carbon bucket seat replacement after driver's-side bolster wear$9,000
Michelin Pilot Sport 4S or Cup 2 tyre set, front wear heavy on xDrive$3,250
Out-of-warranty BMW dealer service visit$1,300

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueAsks only · 0 recorded sales
Carried value
$140,000
Historical price
2021 · $329,0002026 · $140,000
Asks only
An external source, but no itemised transactions. Indicative only.
This is a current-production car and it is still depreciating

It sits in this library as a reference point beside the M4 CSL, not as an established Australian collectable, and nothing here should be read as an appreciation case. BMW still sells it new through the franchised dealer network at $204,138 drive-away as configured for a Sydney postcode in 2026, and a 2021 Competition is off roughly 25 to 35 per cent from new, with the curve now flattening rather than turning.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (2 more)
There is no Australian auction Series for it at all

Around two hundred and fifty of these change hands here in a year and none of that turnover produces a published result. The evidence is live retail asks of $125,900 to $185,000 and a guide range of $119,500 to $152,500 on a 2022 car. Asks on a car still in production sit above achievable money by more than usual, because the showroom price anchors them from above.

The used pool and the showroom car are not the same specification

Post-LCI Australian Competitions make 390kW; the pre-LCI cars that make up the entire used pool make 375kW. M xDrive carries a premium here and is the volume seller. Carbon bucket seats hold value but wear at the driver's-side bolster and are $9,000 to replace, and a full set of carbon ceramic discs is $25,000. Neither an Australian volume figure nor a 2021 launch price could be verified, and BMW does not publish G82 production at all.

What we will not sell you
We will not price a BMW M4 against an advertisement.

No Australian transaction stands behind this value. A spec-adjusted figure built on it would look precise and would not be, so the report is refused instead of sold with a caveat. That goes for this car and 87 others. Everything above is free and stays free.

Read a real listing report
Watch this model
Told when the next one is called.

One line of email when this desk publishes a call on a BMW M4 Competition, or records a new Australian sale of one. Nothing else, no schedule, and on a quiet model you may hear nothing for months, which is itself worth knowing about a car you are chasing.

Free. One address, one model, and no account.