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Price opinion from advertisements and recorded sales. Not an inspection or a certified valuation.
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Reference photograph of a Ferrari 458 Speciale
Valuation · Ferrari · F142 · 2013-15

Ferrari 458 Speciale

4.5L NA V8 · 445 kW / 540 Nm · 7sp dual-clutch · RWD
BUYRated within the over $100k band · 1 of 104 at this money
Model value
$1,000,000
Must gain each year to break even
+2.7%
The projection clears it. 14 of 244 in the library do.
CarQuant score
77/100
Scored against the over $100k band, not the whole library
Evidence grade
Thin
One to three recorded Australian sales
$1,000,000
$1,077,443 lowhigh $2,096,582
Calibrated to a thin record
First Australian result 25 August 2026, $1,645,400. The 458 range clears 86% internationally
Measured across this library, a value resting on a single Australian result runs high about six times in ten, by a median of five per cent.

Looking at a 458 Speciale for sale?

Put in the asking price and the odometer reading. You will see what this model should make at that reading.

Should make, typical example
$1,000,000
At about 25,000 km. Enter an asking price to compare.

Odometer only. Colour, options, history, condition and the photographs move it further, and that is what the report reads.

A person reads the advertisement and its photographs. Usually back within 48 hours. Read a real listing report

Price history

Today $1,000,000 · modelled median at five years $1,459,620
Solid line: the value this library has carriedDashed from 2026: modelled · even money $1,258,595 to $1,794,662
The green band is the even-money range and the one to plan on: half of outcomes land inside it. The pale band behind it bounds eight in ten ($1,077,443 to $2,096,582). The path is this model's own: it starts along the momentum of its recorded history and bends toward its projected median as the horizon lengthens, so no two cars share a future curve.

The verdict

Strong within its price band. Scores 77/100, ranking 1 of 104 in the over $100k band. Scarcity is the strongest input, risk resilience the weakest.
Running it costs about $18,100 a year (1.8% of value), which is what the economics score measures. All in, including the projected value change, it is -$63,824 a year.
The model's five year median is $1,459,620, a +46.0% move, with the tenth percentile at $1,077,443.
Value calibrated to a thin record. Treat the level as provisional.
Evidence
Thin1 recorded sale
Off its peak
at peak
Value band
wide
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
Scored against every recent Australian sale this library holds, half its values land within 11.2 per cent of the price paid and the rest miss by more, in either direction. Projections are therefore damped toward flat in proportion to how little is known, and the plausible band is never narrower than the error the model is known to make.
Short term (1-5 years)-$63,824 a year all in, +46.0% median value move
Long term (10-15 years)Scarcity case already formed
Negotiate from$1,000,000

Recorded sales

Every recorded observation, and when
3 rows on record
$1.7m$1.3m$860k
20262027
the value this record published, year by yearnow $1.0msoldasking
Every row, with its price and note (3) ↓
2026Pickles$1,645,400Sold
SOLD. 25 August 2026, Belmore NSW, lot 827. 2015, 1,330km, Australian-delivered, NART stripe, carbon racing seats, Scuderia shields, thirteen-entry factory register. The first Australian Speciale auction result. Recorded as published; hammer or premium-inclusive is unconfirmed
2026ASK$1,050,000Asking
ASKING. 2015, 20,000km, dealer. A listing, not a transaction, and it predates the August result
2026ASK$1,199,990Asking
ASKING. 2014, 14,379km, dealer NSW. A listing, not a transaction, and it predates the August result
1 completed Australian sale of 3 rows. Rows marked asking, no sale, or context are shown for honesty but do not count toward the evidence grade: an ask is not a transaction, a pass-in is a refusal, and a provenance or overseas result does not price the ordinary local car. The badge on every row is computed by the same rule as the grade, so the two cannot drift apart.

Published calls on this car

1 call on this model has been published and settled, and graded against what the car actually made.

Wrong2026-08-24
Sold $1,645,400 at Pickles, Belmore, verified. The call was 27.1 per cent low, beyond the ten per cent a line ball allows.
Called
$1,200,000
made $1,645,400 (+27.1%)

Score breakdown

Against the over $100k band median
104 cars in band · ink tick marks the median
Ownership economics30% of total
72/100+3
Scarcity25% of total
100/100+35
Demand durability20% of total
100/100+22
Liquidity15% of total
44/100+12
Risk resilience10% of total
42/100+8
Sub-scores run 0-100 before weighting; the weighted total is 77/100. Medians are computed live from the 104 cars currently in the over $100k band, so this picture moves when the library does.
The working behind each factor: baseline and drivers ↓
Ownership economics30% weight
72/100
Baseline78 pts
− 1.8% of value a year to run-6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)72 pts
Scarcity25% weight
100/100
Baseline82 pts
+ Roughly 3,000 built worldwide+12 pts
+ An estimated 60 delivered to Australia+10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)100 pts
Demand durability20% weight
100/100
Baseline92 pts
+ The last naturally aspirated mid-engined V8 Ferrari, which is the entire case+26 pts
+ The turbocharged 488 that replaced it clears only 44% internationally against the 458 range at 86%+8 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)100 pts
Liquidity15% weight
44/100
Baseline26 pts
+ The 458 range clears 86% internationally, the healthiest measured in this library+12 pts
+ One Australian auction result, August 2026, and it sold at a strong price+6 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)44 pts
Risk resilience10% weight
42/100
Baseline52 pts
− Track use is common on this model and provenance work is essential-10 pts
Sub-score (baseline plus drivers, clamped 0-100)42 pts
Model output, not advice or a valuation. Verify independently before acting.

What it costs to own · about 2,500 km a year

Annual cost of access, excl. fuel
$18,100a year
Share of value per year
1.8%
Scheduled servicing$4,40024%
Tyres, annualised$2,60014%
Registration and CTP$9005%
Insurance$6,20034%
Sinking fund (failure table)$4,00022%
All-in annualised (a different number)
Purchase (model value plus duty)$1,040,000
Running costs × 5 years$90,500
Median exit, net of selling cost$1,449,620
All-in annualised over 5 years-$63,824/yr
Share of value per year-6.4%
Cost of access is what the car costs to run. All-in annualised adds depreciation, duty and selling costs across a five year hold. They answer different questions and are labelled separately for that reason.
Break-even appreciation, 5 year hold
2.7%a year, only to get the money back
This library projects
+7.9%a year
The projection clears the hurdle by 5.2 points a year. On these assumptions the car covers its own costs and leaves a surplus.
Purchase$1,000,000
Stamp duty$40,000
Running costs x 5 years$90,500
Selling cost at exit, 1.0% of the salescales with price
Sale price needed at +5 years$1,141,919
Storage
Bought at
No forecast is used to compute the hurdle. It is the purchase, the duty, any premium and 5 years of running cost, grossed up for the cost of selling and spread back over the hold. The projection it is measured against is the weakest number in this product and is drawn that way in the chart above. Transport, finance and any restoration spend sit outside it.

Specification

Engine4.5L NA V8
Power / torque445 kW / 540 Nm
0-100 km/h3 s
Transmission7sp dual-clutch
DriveRWD
Kerb weight1,395 kg
Built worldwide3,000
Delivered to Australia60
Effective AU survivors58
Australian sales / year4
Typical days on market95 days
Launch price$550,000

What moves the price on this model

Colour hierarchy
Bianco Avus with racing stripe+10%
Rosso Corsa+4%
Giallo Modena+6%
Options
Racing stripe as delivered+10%
Carbon racing seats+12%
Scuderia shields+5%
Odometer sensitivity±2% per 10,000 km vs 25,000 km
Applied on top of these

Condition, history, originality, ownership, delivery and modification multipliers apply to every car in the library. They are applied automatically when an advertisement is analysed, and the schedule is set out once, on the analyser page.

Projected value in five years

Projected value at five years
$1,459,620
+46.0% on today
The model's figure. Today it is $1,000,000.
Even odds it lands between $1,258,595 and $1,794,662.
$1,077,443 lowhigh $2,096,582
The shaded range is even money and 43% wide; the outer figures bound eight outcomes in ten. Band width follows the evidence - a model with a tight measured record carries a tight band.
A stronger five year outlook than 99% of the library.
-26.6% weakest projected move in the librarystrongest +73.1%
Five-year cost of ownership
Value change alone: +$459,620 across five years.
Running costs over the same period: $90,500.
Duty and expected selling costs: $50,000.
Net cost of five years of ownership: -$319,120, or -$63,824 a year.
The projected value rise offsets part of the running cost. It does not make the car free to own.

The case for and against

The case for

The last naturally aspirated mid-engined V8 Ferrari, and the market has already separated it from the turbocharged 488: the 458 range clears 86 per cent internationally against the 488's 44. Roughly 3,000 built and an estimated 60 in Australia.

The case against

One Australian result is not a market. This figure rests on a single transaction, and on an exceptional car: delivery mileage, Australian-delivered, every option this record scores, and a register that evidences the reading. A typical Speciale has none of those things. These are driven and tracked more than most Ferraris, so provenance work is essential rather than optional, and a tracked car is worth materially less than the figure here. The 2026 divergence cuts both ways - if Australia reverts to right-hand-drive pricing rather than American, the British evidence sits a long way below this number.

Known faults and risks

Risk 1One Australian auction result, so the local market here is a single data point
Risk 2Track use is common and provenance work is essential
Risk 3Carbon-ceramic and engine service costs at high mileage
Annual service$4,400
Carbon-ceramic brake set$30,000
Clutch replacement$9,500

Similar cars, and what they cost to run

Evidence behind this valueThin · 1 recorded sale
Carried value
$1,000,000
Historical price
2016 · $560,0002026 · $1,000,000
Thin
At least one recorded transaction plus a source. Direction is sound, the exact level less so.
First Australian auction result, 25 August 2026

$1,645,400 at Pickles, Belmore, New South Wales, lot 827 - a 2015 car at 1,330km, Australian-delivered, carrying the NART livery stripe, carbon racing seats and Scuderia shields, with a factory maintenance register running to thirteen dated dealer entries. It is the only Speciale to have sold publicly in this country and it closes the largest stated hole this entry ever carried.

Read the rest of the evidence notes (6 more)
Whether that figure is the hammer or includes the buyer premium is unconfirmed

It is recorded as published; on the premium-inclusive reading the hammer sits near $1,543,000.

Why this is a separate entry

The Speciale is not a trim on the 458 Italia. It is 90kg lighter, 26kW stronger, and the most focused naturally aspirated mid-engined car Ferrari built. Auction catalogues list both as 458, and pricing one off the other would understate the Speciale by a wide margin, exactly as happened with the 430 Scuderia and the 16M elsewhere in this library.

The international market split in 2026 and this sale picked a side

Monterey week, August 2026: US$1,490,000 for a 1,000-mile car at RM Sothebys, US$1,210,000 at Mecum, US$1,022,500 at Gooding Christies, and US$920,000 for an 11,000-mile car on Bring a Trailer in July - roughly A$1,290,000 to A$2,085,000 converted at 0.7146. The right-hand-drive market did not follow. The one recent public RHD auction result is GBP350,200 for an 18,171km car through Collecting Cars on 30 June 2026, about A$662,000, against British dealer asks of GBP620,000 to GBP650,000 for sub-2,000-mile cars. Australia was assumed to buy in the right-hand-drive pool. On this evidence it does not: this car made American money.

The delivery-mileage premium is the whole divergence

The American results pay about 62 per cent more for a delivery-mileage car than for one at 11,000 miles; the British asks pay about 16 per cent. This sale sits at the American end of that range.

The base moved $900,000 to $1,000,000, and that is deliberately less than the sale implies

Backed out at the valuer own raw adjustment for this car, +57 per cent, the result implies a base near $1,048,000; at the capped +45 per cent it implies $1,135,000. The two domestic dealer asks on this record, $1,050,000 and $1,199,990, both predate the result and are now stale-low. The CLASSIC.COM benchmark converts to about A$906,000 and lags. $1,000,000 is where those converge, and it is one transaction rather than a market.

What the result did not settle

The market paid 83 per cent over the old base and the valuer is capped at 45, so most of that gap is the cap and not the base. Raising the base alone does not fix it.

This page prices the model.
The report prices the car in the advertisement.

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The evidence on this model is thin and the report says so on its cover. Read a complete one on a real car first. Seventeen sections, no account, nothing to pay.

This model, today$1,000,000
Half of sales are further out than$111,791
The report$249
449×
the price of the report: what half of real sales of this model sit further from this page's number than, on this car
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